AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Edition of Friday, 20 November 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 21 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Friday, 20 November 2026.

Economics

U.S. inflation stayed subdued in September and October

Core PCE held at 3.1% and October CPI rose 0.3%, while China's annual inflation stayed near one percent.

34% certain
lead market 34%next 28%1 venuesettles Wed 11 Nov12 markets behind this

On Wednesday, data showed U.S. Core PCE inflation remained at 3.10% year-over-year for September. The same day, October consumer-price index rose 0.3% month-on-month. Together with China's annual inflation of roughly one percent, the figures signaled subdued price growth.

The modest U.S. numbers kept expectations for a sharp equity rally low. In October the S&P 500 ETF never fell to the $710 low that had been watched.

Treasury yields also stayed restrained, as the 10-year note did not climb to 5.41% during the month. The yield ceiling remained below that level throughout October.

China's inflation reading for October, posted at 0.9%-1.0% year-over-year, aligned with the low-inflation environment elsewhere. The figure contrasted with earlier expectations of higher growth. It added to the global picture of temperate price dynamics.

Expectations for future bond-yield increases stayed modest. The data set a tone of caution for investors heading into the final weeks of 2026.

Analysis

Subdued inflation reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise short-term rates, which in turn limits the upside potential for equities that often respond to aggressive monetary easing.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September: 3.10%, 46% settles Thursday, 29 October 2026 · futuur · see the market
October Inflation US - Monthly: 0.3%, 34% settles Wednesday, 11 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.41% in October?: No, 85% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?: No, 72% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?: No, 73% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in October?: No, 90% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?: No, 76% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?: No, 92% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in October?: No, 92% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in October?: No, 97% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in October?: No, 96% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
October Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%, 46% settles Monday, 9 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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