# U.S. inflation stayed subdued in September and October

*Economics. 34% certain. Wednesday, 11 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Core PCE held at 3.1% and October CPI rose 0.3%, while China's annual inflation stayed near one percent.**

On Wednesday, data showed U.S. Core PCE inflation remained at 3.10% year-over-year for September. The same day, October consumer-price index rose 0.3% month-on-month. Together with China's annual inflation of roughly one percent, the figures signaled subdued price growth.

The modest U.S. numbers kept expectations for a sharp equity rally low. In October the S&P 500 ETF never fell to the $710 low that had been watched.

Treasury yields also stayed restrained, as the 10-year note did not climb to 5.41% during the month. The yield ceiling remained below that level throughout October.

China's inflation reading for October, posted at 0.9%-1.0% year-over-year, aligned with the low-inflation environment elsewhere. The figure contrasted with earlier expectations of higher growth. It added to the global picture of temperate price dynamics.

Expectations for future bond-yield increases stayed modest. The data set a tone of caution for investors heading into the final weeks of 2026.

## Analysis

Subdued inflation reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise short-term rates, which in turn limits the upside potential for equities that often respond to aggressive monetary easing.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Equal-weight S&P 500 at $214.09, down 0.42%, 84% beat rate](https://financefeeds.com/equal-weight-sp-500-214-09-down-0-42-84-beat-rate/)
- [S&P 500 (^GSPC) Historical Data - Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/)
- [S&P 500 Historical Data (SPX) - Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data)
- [SPY ETF Stock Price History - Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500-historical-data)

## What this was built from

- **US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September**: 3.10%, 46%; settles Thursday, 29 October 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/247552/us-core-pce-inflation-year-over-year-september)
- **October Inflation US - Monthly**: 0.3%, 34%; settles Wednesday, 11 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/october-inflation-us-monthly)
- **Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.41% in October?**: No, 85%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-october)
- **Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?**: No, 72%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october)
- **Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?**: No, 73%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-october-2026)
- **Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in October?**: No, 90%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-october-2026)
- **Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?**: No, 76%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-october-2026)
- **Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?**: No, 92%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-october-2026)
- **Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in October?**: No, 92%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-october-2026)
- **Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in October?**: No, 97%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-october-2026)
- **Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in October?**: No, 96%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-october-2026)
- **October Inflation China - Annual**: 0.9% to 1.0%, 46%; settles Monday, 9 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/october-inflation-china-annual)