AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 9 October 2026
Edition of Sunday, 8 November 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 9 Oct · not a record of events

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World

Likud won election and Gadi Eizenkot became Prime Minister

The party secured 20-24 seats, giving it a modest Knesset majority.

39% certain
lead market 39%next 28%1 venuesettles Wed 28 Oct3 markets behind this

Likud won the Israeli Legislative election held on Wednesday, 28 October. The party secured a modest Knesset majority of 20 to 24 seats. Gadi Eizenkot was appointed Prime Minister

The result placed Likud ahead of the Yashar list, the Together bloc and Otzma Yehudit. All three parties failed to claim the top spot. The vote count confirmed Likud's lead on the same day the poll closed.

The post-election appointment named Gadi Eizenkot as Israel's Prime Minister he was chosen over former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He also beat former leaders Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman for the role.

Likud's seat count was recorded within a band of twenty to twenty-four seats. The party therefore held a modest majority in the 120-member legislature. The outcome was finalized on Wednesday, 28 October.

Analysis

With only twenty to twenty-four seats, Likud lacks a comfortable margin and will likely have to negotiate with smaller factions to pass legislation. That dynamic could reshape the composition of the governing coalition and give junior partners leverage over policy priorities.

His background suggests a possible emphasis on security issues, but his civilian political experience is limited, leaving open how his style will affect diplomatic and domestic agendas.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot, 44% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Likud, 51% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-24, 39% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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