# Likud won election and Gadi Eizenkot became Prime Minister

*World. 39% certain. Wednesday, 28 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The party secured 20-24 seats, giving it a modest Knesset majority.**

Likud won the Israeli Legislative election held on Wednesday, 28 October. The party secured a modest Knesset majority of 20 to 24 seats. Gadi Eizenkot was appointed Prime Minister

The result placed Likud ahead of the Yashar list, the Together bloc and Otzma Yehudit. All three parties failed to claim the top spot. The vote count confirmed Likud's lead on the same day the poll closed.

The post-election appointment named Gadi Eizenkot as Israel's Prime Minister he was chosen over former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He also beat former leaders Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman for the role.

Likud's seat count was recorded within a band of twenty to twenty-four seats. The party therefore held a modest majority in the 120-member legislature. The outcome was finalized on Wednesday, 28 October.

## Analysis

With only twenty to twenty-four seats, Likud lacks a comfortable margin and will likely have to negotiate with smaller factions to pass legislation. That dynamic could reshape the composition of the governing coalition and give junior partners leverage over policy priorities.

His background suggests a possible emphasis on security issues, but his civilian political experience is limited, leaving open how his style will affect diplomatic and domestic agendas.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2022 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Israeli_legislative_election)
- [2026 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election)
- [Opinion polling for the 2026 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election)
- [2020 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election)

## What this was built from

- **Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?**: Gadi Eizenkot, 44%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election)
- **Israeli Legislative Election Winner**: Likud, 51%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-legislative-election-winner)
- **Israel Election: Likud # of seats?**: 20-24, 39%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-likud-of-seats)