42%Lula won Brazil presidency after tight runoff qualification55%Liberal Party secured senate majority and Chamber win52%OpenAI released Astra model and labeled it a Critical capability51%OpenAI's GPT-6 topped LiveBench and broke 1520 arena score59%United Russia swept Duma elections, opposition failed thresholds92%Iranian regime stayed in power as blockade persisted58%Fed kept rates unchanged in September as inflation rose36%United Russia won most seats in state Duma election54%Social Democrats emerged as largest party in Sweden election40%ECB raised rates as Argentina's inflation hit 2% in August69%Helena Foulkes won Rhode Island Democratic governor primary56%Death of the Pastor's Wife led global Netflix show chart

AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 4 September 2026
Edition of Sunday, 4 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 4 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Sunday, 4 October 2026.

Politics

Lula won Brazil presidency after tight runoff qualification

Flávio Bolsonaro also reached the runoff while Tarcísio de Freitas missed the cut.

42% certain
lead market 42%next 37%1 venuesettles Sun 4 Oct

On Sunday, 4 October 2026, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva emerged as Brazil's president-Elect after a tightly contested race. Lula secured a place in the runoff alongside Flávio Bolsonaro, while Tarcísio de Freitas failed to qualify. No candidate achieved an outright first-round Victory, sending the contest to a second round.

In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro finished in second place, trailing the leading candidate by a narrow Margin The close result reflected the competitive nature of the election.

Read the full report

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Fed Decision in September?: No change58%Wed 16 Sept
  2. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva51%Sun 4 Oct
  3. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)68%Wed 30 Sept
  4. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes55%Sat 3 Oct
  5. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro78%Sun 4 Oct
  6. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson73%Sun 13 Sept
  7. Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?: Yes97%Mon 14 Sept
  8. OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  9. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  10. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)98%Wed 30 Sept
  11. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%Sun 13 Sept
  12. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes89%Thu 1 Oct
  13. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula60%Fri 2 Oct
  14. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  15. Ipswich Town FC vs. Liverpool FC: Liverpool FC71%Fri 4 Sept
  16. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Augusto Cury61%Sun 4 Oct
  17. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Pause–Pause–Pause59%Wed 16 Sept
  18. Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  19. Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?: No80%Sat 12 Sept
  20. Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: No63%Mon 21 Sept
  21. Manchester City FC vs. Coventry City FC: Manchester City FC90%Sat 5 Sept
  22. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)87%Sun 20 Sept
  23. Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?: Yes85%Wed 30 Sept
  24. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes88%Sat 12 Sept
  25. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  26. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  27. ECB Interest Rates: September 2026: 25 bps increase99%Thu 10 Sept
  28. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33936%Sun 20 Sept
  29. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes63%Sun 20 Sept
  30. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%42%Sun 4 Oct
  31. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL84%Sun 4 Oct
  32. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes98%Sun 4 Oct
  33. Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Arsenal FC57%Sun 6 Sept
  34. Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes92%Fri 11 Sept
  35. Will Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?”: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  36. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No95%Sun 4 Oct
  37. Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: No99%Wed 16 Sept
  38. Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?: No96%Fri 4 Sept
  39. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: No84%Wed 16 Sept
  40. Bank of Russia decision in September?: No Change59%Fri 11 Sept
  41. Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?: 20%+54%Sun 13 Sept
  42. Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?: No98%Wed 23 Sept
  43. LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Playoffs: Dplus KIA64%Fri 4 Sept
  44. Will Chat GPT Astra or GPT6 have safeguard triggers like Anthropic models?: Yes52%Sat 26 Sept
  45. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  46. LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs: Anyone's Legend69%Fri 4 Sept
  47. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  48. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes96%Sun 4 Oct
  49. Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No99%Sun 4 Oct
  50. Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: Manchester United FC60%Sun 6 Sept
  51. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL55%Sun 4 Oct
  52. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  53. Which week will OpenAI release Astra?: August 31–September 659%Sun 13 Sept
  54. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: No95%Tue 8 Sept
  55. August Inflation US - Annual: 3.4%40%Fri 11 Sept
  56. EPL Week 3 Liverpool vs Ipswich- Will Liverpool WIN @ Ipswich?: Yes65%Sat 5 Sept
  57. Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?: Yes92%Thu 1 Oct
  58. Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Helena Foulkes99%Tue 8 Sept
  59. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern69%Wed 9 Sept
  60. Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?: David Morales83%Wed 9 Sept
  61. LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - LCK Playoffs: Gen.G57%Sat 5 Sept
  62. Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5): LGD Gaming61%Fri 4 Sept
  63. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: OpenAI51%Thu 1 Oct
  64. Will August 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes71%Thu 10 Sept
  65. Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  66. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?: OpenAI67%Thu 1 Oct
  67. EPL: Draw No Bet: Will Manchester United FC beat Everton FC?: Yes51%Sun 6 Sept
  68. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office: 15m+94%Sun 6 Sept
  69. Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner: did not happen96%Tue 8 Sept
  70. European Central Bank interest rate decision in September: Rise by 0.25% or more96%Wed 9 Sept
  71. Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5): KT Rolster66%Fri 4 Sept
  72. August Inflation China - Annual: 0.5% - 0.6%42%Wed 9 Sept
  73. August Inflation US - Monthly: 0.4%76%Fri 11 Sept
  74. Argentina monthly inflation — August 2026: Between 1.5% and 1.7%52%Thu 10 Sept
  75. Alex Warren 'Wildchild' First Week Album Sales?: 70-90k99%Fri 4 Sept
  76. Rod Wave 'Don't Look Down' First Week Album Sales?: 105-125k95%Fri 4 Sept
  77. PPI YoY - August 2026: 5.1%+69%Thu 10 Sept
  78. Core CPI YoY - August 2026: 2.4%72%Fri 11 Sept
  79. Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of September 12: Boston - Stella Lefty97%Tue 8 Sept
  80. Argentina Monthly Inflation - August: 1.8-2.0%98%Thu 10 Sept
  81. "The Odyssey" 8th Weekend Box Office: 11m+95%Sun 6 Sept
  82. Core CPI MoM - August 2026: 0.2%41%Fri 11 Sept
  83. What will be the top global Netflix show this week?: Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 183%Tue 8 Sept
  84. "By Any Means" Opening Weekend Box Office: 5-6m31%Sun 6 Sept
  85. Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of September 12: Don't Look Down - Rod Wave96%Tue 8 Sept
  86. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man94%Tue 8 Sept
  87. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look67%Tue 8 Sept
  88. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man94%Tue 8 Sept
  89. Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Sabina Matos82%Wed 9 Sept
  90. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: The Gentlemen: Season 256%Tue 8 Sept
  91. Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026: Yes77%Sun 6 Sept
  92. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3085%Thu 1 Oct
  93. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  94. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  95. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes94%Wed 30 Sept
  96. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke45%Sun 20 Sept
  97. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  98. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No97%Fri 2 Oct
  99. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  100. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  101. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 4?: Yes91%Fri 4 Sept
  102. Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now?: Yes99%Sat 5 Sept
  103. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz42%Sun 13 Sept
  104. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  105. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  106. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  107. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  108. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No88%Wed 30 Sept
  109. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic77%Thu 1 Oct
  110. SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes95%Sun 6 Sept
  111. VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln: VfB Stuttgart66%Fri 4 Sept
  112. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes67%Wed 16 Sept
  113. In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation: Yes55%Sat 5 Sept
  114. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: No84%Sun 6 Sept
  115. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  116. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  117. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  118. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  119. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  120. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  121. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 5 kt on September 29, 2026?: Yes92%Tue 29 Sept
  122. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  123. DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  124. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  125. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  126. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  127. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  128. 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Aryna Sabalenka23%Sun 13 Sept
  129. Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Paris Saint-Germain FC75%Fri 4 Sept
  130. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD75%Sun 20 Sept
  131. Will there be a confirmed case of Cyclosporiasis in ALL 48 US contiguous states before the end of August 2026?: No95%Tue 15 Sept
  132. Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  133. US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys: Alexander Zverev91%Thu 10 Sept
  134. Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: Cleveland Guardians65%Fri 11 Sept
  135. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  136. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes84%Tue 29 Sept
  137. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  138. Elon Musk # tweets August 28 - September 4, 2026?: 220-23958%Fri 4 Sept
  139. Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?: Yes56%Thu 1 Oct
  140. Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  141. WNBA: 2026 Rookie of the Year: Olivia Miles93%Fri 25 Sept
  142. Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?: No96%Thu 10 Sept
  143. SPY 900 by Sep 18 2026?: No98%Fri 18 Sept
  144. Will YES have more holders than NO?: Yes81%Mon 14 Sept
  145. Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  146. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  147. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  148. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA90%Wed 30 Sept
  149. Who will learn to write first? My left hand or my robot hand?: No69%Wed 16 Sept
  150. Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  151. Will I get a positive pregnancy test in the next two weeks?: No84%Thu 10 Sept
  152. Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?: No89%Sun 27 Sept
  153. Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  154. MLB: RBIs Leader: Sal Stewart58%Mon 28 Sept
  155. MLB: Triples Leader: Corbin Carroll87%Mon 28 Sept
  156. Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?: No71%Sun 13 Sept
  157. Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?: Yes96%Tue 8 Sept
  158. Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 August 31-September 6?: No95%Mon 7 Sept
  159. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  160. WNBA: Rebounds Per Game Leader: Angel Reese91%Thu 24 Sept
  161. Clarity Act will pass in September: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  162. Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  163. Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie: Oscar Isaac – “Beef”70%Mon 14 Sept
  164. Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: FC Barcelona76%Sun 6 Sept
  165. will Kalorm survive to the end of 'to face the death you're never that far from' (includes both true death and cryo): Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  166. MLB: Batting Average Leader: Luis Arraez44%Mon 28 Sept
  167. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo83%Sun 4 Oct
  168. Will Israel exist two years from now?: Yes99%Fri 18 Sept
  169. MLB: ERA Leader: Max Fried9%Mon 28 Sept
  170. Elon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?: 200-21930%Tue 8 Sept
  171. MLB: Runs Leader: Shohei Ohtani12%Mon 28 Sept
  172. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  173. Will I remain in Montreal past September?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  174. Bank of Japan Decision in September?: 25 bps increase97%Fri 18 Sept
  175. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  176. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes92%Wed 30 Sept
  177. Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie: Carey Mulligan – “Beef”50%Mon 14 Sept
  178. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas97%Sun 4 Oct
  179. Will Zoro kill/defeat a Gorosei?: Yes56%Tue 22 Sept
  180. Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series: “Widow’s Bay”62%Mon 14 Sept
  181. Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  182. Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF76%Fri 4 Sept
  183. Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?: No83%Sun 6 Sept
  184. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No85%Sat 3 Oct
  185. Will the S&P 500 close above 7,710 on Friday?: Yes92%Sat 5 Sept
  186. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  187. Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?: Yes79%Thu 1 Oct
  188. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  189. Will Trump outlive DeSantis?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  190. Will my brother start reading Harry Potter in the next week?: No97%Tue 8 Sept
  191. Will a US senator die before October 1st?: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  192. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  193. Will Brett Smiley win the 2026 Democratic primary for Mayor of Providence?: No76%Sat 12 Sept
  194. Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $83 on September 10, 2026?: Yes93%Thu 10 Sept
  195. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: Yes75%Thu 1 Oct
  196. Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.: Yes64%Thu 1 Oct
  197. Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?: No99%Fri 11 Sept
  198. Will I drop out of a PhD within 3 years?: No92%Sun 6 Sept
  199. Apakah aptos akan naik 75% September: No80%Wed 30 Sept
  200. ULTIMATUM GAME: two random traders negotiate this market's resolution: Yes50%Tue 8 Sept
  201. Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 August 31-September 6?: No93%Mon 7 Sept
  202. FC Schalke 04 vs. FC Bayern München: FC Bayern München87%Sat 5 Sept
  203. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: No83%Thu 1 Oct
  204. Will Carlos Alcaraz win at least 2 Grand Slams in 2026?: No55%Sun 13 Sept
  205. Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Newcastle United FC45%Sat 5 Sept
  206. MLB: Stolen Bases Leader: Nasim Nuñez57%Mon 28 Sept
  207. Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  208. US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz: Carlos Alcaraz94%Fri 11 Sept
  209. The Greens receive at least 5% and enter the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag: Yes65%Sun 20 Sept
  210. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS82%Sat 3 Oct
  211. Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?: No93%Sat 3 Oct
  212. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  213. Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?: No61%Thu 1 Oct
  214. Will Nancy Pelosi run for Congress in 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  215. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  216. Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  217. Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  218. WNBA: Assists Per Game Leader: Caitlin Clark57%Thu 24 Sept
  219. New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Chris Pappas96%Tue 8 Sept
  220. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes63%Sun 4 Oct
  221. Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 4, 2026?: No82%Sat 5 Sept
  222. Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months?: No97%Wed 23 Sept
  223. Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $100 before Sep 8?: No85%Tue 8 Sept
  224. Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  225. Nottingham Forest FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Nottingham Forest FC52%Sat 5 Sept
  226. Will Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026?: Yes88%Tue 15 Sept
  227. Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  228. Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  229. Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: No55%Thu 24 Sept
  230. Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  231. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  232. Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Alibaba70%Thu 1 Oct
  233. Will my YouTube Channel have 30 subscribers before the end of September 2026?: Yes88%Wed 30 Sept
  234. WNBA: 2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson85%Fri 25 Sept
  235. Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]: No67%Tue 29 Sept
  236. Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  237. Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  238. Will I stay in masters this season?: Yes73%Thu 1 Oct
  239. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?: No83%Wed 16 Sept
  240. Will I graduate with a PhD in 3 years?: No87%Sun 6 Sept
  241. Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  242. Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?: No Return to Normal Traffic in 202681%Wed 30 Sept
  243. Will the US announce materially tougher Iran sanctions within 14‑days of Scott Bessent’s “Economic D‑Day” FT op‑ed?: No74%Sat 5 Sept
  244. Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  245. Will deepseek v5 release in september 2026?: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  246. Will Gukesh be board 1 for India at Olympiad?: No68%Wed 9 Sept
  247. Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs: Team Falcons59%Fri 4 Sept
  248. BSW receives at least 5% and enters the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag: No80%Sun 6 Sept
  249. Was the ICE agent who shot Renee Nicole Good injured?: No79%Fri 18 Sept
  250. NH-01 Republican Primary Winner: Anthony DiLorenzo75%Tue 8 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a month, then reported as though they already had.