60%Lula re-elected president of Brazil82%Israel kept Iran ceasefire, held Lebanon talks, did not withdraw80%Bitcoin peaked at $80,000 in September but missed $90,000 milestone30%United Russia kept Duma majority with 325-339 seats91%Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed constrained as US blockade persisted37%Carlos Alcaraz won the 2026 US Open men's singles60%United Russia won every region in 2026 Duma election50%Swedish Social Democrats won election, forming coalition under Magdalena Andersson46%AfD topped Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vote in September elections83%Helena Foulkes and Elaine Pelino won Rhode Island governor primaries57%Iga Swiatek defeated Nadia Podoroska at US Open81%A rival AI model topped the leaderboard on September 7

AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 3 September 2026
Edition of Saturday, 3 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 3 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Saturday, 3 October 2026.

World

Lula re-elected president of Brazil

Latvia's as party won the Parliamentary election and Israel's government remained intact.

60% certain
lead market 60%next 32%1 venuesettles Fri 2 Oct

Incumbent forces held their ground in a series of elections this week. Brazil re-elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as president, while Latvia's Alliance of the Centre (as) secured a Parliamentary majority. In Israel the sitting government persisted without disruption and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remained in the race. Meanwhile Swiss voters dismissed a proposal to codify neutrality and California voters applied the Prop 50 redistricting map in the 2026 election.

The Brazilian presidential vote concluded on Friday, 2 October, confirming Lula's victory and granting him a second term. The result affirmed the continuity of the left-leaning administration that began in 2023.

Read the full report

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)69%Wed 30 Sept
  2. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson73%Sun 13 Sept
  3. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)96%Wed 30 Sept
  4. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  5. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke46%Sun 20 Sept
  6. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  7. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz37%Sun 13 Sept
  8. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  9. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)97%Sun 13 Sept
  10. Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026: Yes86%Sun 6 Sept
  11. SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes93%Sun 6 Sept
  12. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: No85%Sun 6 Sept
  13. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  14. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula60%Fri 2 Oct
  15. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes85%Wed 30 Sept
  16. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  17. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  18. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  19. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  20. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD78%Sun 20 Sept
  21. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner: did not happen100%Sun 6 Sept
  22. Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?: No82%Sat 12 Sept
  23. Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: No63%Mon 21 Sept
  24. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  25. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)87%Sun 20 Sept
  26. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes88%Sat 12 Sept
  27. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  28. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  29. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  30. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  31. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes63%Sun 20 Sept
  32. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33937%Sun 20 Sept
  33. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  34. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  35. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  36. Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: No61%Thu 24 Sept
  37. Counter-Strike: K27 vs Nemiga (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: K27100%Thu 3 Sept
  38. Bank of Russia decision in September?: No Change61%Fri 11 Sept
  39. Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?: Yes80%Thu 1 Oct
  40. Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: magic95%Thu 3 Sept
  41. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS84%Sat 3 Oct
  42. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  43. Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?: 20%+50%Sun 13 Sept
  44. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  45. Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner: MIBR82%Thu 3 Sept
  46. Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: MIBR77%Thu 3 Sept
  47. Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs HOTU (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs: HOTU100%Thu 3 Sept
  48. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: Yes82%Thu 1 Oct
  49. Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner: Fatima Shaban91%Thu 3 Sept
  50. Will the Israeli government significantly undermine the next election?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  51. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 5-7%46%Sun 6 Sept
  52. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%58%Sun 6 Sept
  53. Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes80%Mon 7 Sept
  54. Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?: Sven Schulze72%Sun 6 Sept
  55. US Open ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Francisco Cerundolo: Francisco Cerundolo61%Wed 9 Sept
  56. OpenAI's Astra released on...?: September 381%Thu 3 Sept
  57. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner: Jeff Beattie57%Thu 3 Sept
  58. Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner: Katharina Pötter81%Sun 13 Sept
  59. Best AI model on September 7?: Other97%Mon 7 Sept
  60. Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs: Team Falcons60%Fri 4 Sept
  61. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: No95%Tue 8 Sept
  62. Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)48%Sun 20 Sept
  63. Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner: Elaine Pelino95%Tue 8 Sept
  64. Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: No78%Thu 24 Sept
  65. US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci: Taylor Fritz90%Wed 9 Sept
  66. Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Helena Foulkes99%Tue 8 Sept
  67. Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  68. Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  69. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD)77%Sun 13 Sept
  70. Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Rare Atom (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Asian Qualifier Playoffs: TYLOO51%Thu 3 Sept
  71. US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska: Iga Swiatek98%Wed 9 Sept
  72. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No81%Wed 30 Sept
  73. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M)72%Sun 13 Sept
  74. US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Dalibor Svrcina: Luciano Darderi57%Wed 9 Sept
  75. US Open WTA: Qinwen Zheng vs Yulia Putintseva: Qinwen Zheng71%Wed 9 Sept
  76. Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 53-56%30%Sun 20 Sept
  77. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern86%Wed 9 Sept
  78. Bryansk Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner: Yegor Kovalchuk93%Sun 20 Sept
  79. Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Closed Qualifier Playoffs: Sashi Esport100%Thu 3 Sept
  80. US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo: Alejandro Tabilo61%Wed 9 Sept
  81. Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?: David Morales83%Wed 9 Sept
  82. Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: Nuclear TigeRES53%Thu 3 Sept
  83. Bitcoin price reaches 80k USD by the end of September: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  84. Counter-Strike: B8 vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: B856%Thu 3 Sept
  85. Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Sinners (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs: FOKUS60%Thu 3 Sept
  86. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?: 9-12%46%Sun 6 Sept
  87. Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?: No95%Sun 27 Sept
  88. Hannover Mayoral Election Winner: Belit Onay77%Sun 13 Sept
  89. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: 8-11%61%Sun 20 Sept
  90. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Linke73%Sun 20 Sept
  91. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: 20-23%41%Sun 6 Sept
  92. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?: Over55%Sun 6 Sept
  93. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?: 39-42%43%Sun 6 Sept
  94. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?: Over71%Sun 6 Sept
  95. Will Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: Yes59%Thu 24 Sept
  96. Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  97. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 12%?: Under54%Sun 6 Sept
  98. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to Grüne or BSW?: Grüne93%Sun 6 Sept
  99. Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary Winner: Raymond McKay96%Tue 8 Sept
  100. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?: did not happen75%Sun 6 Sept
  101. York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner: Susan Lahey99%Thu 3 Sept
  102. Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?: did not happen85%Sun 6 Sept
  103. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?: Under59%Sun 6 Sept
  104. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or BSW?: SPD93%Sun 6 Sept
  105. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?: Grüne54%Sun 6 Sept
  106. Fed Decision in September?: No change60%Wed 16 Sept
  107. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3088%Thu 1 Oct
  108. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  109. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes94%Wed 30 Sept
  110. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No97%Fri 2 Oct
  111. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 3?: Yes91%Thu 3 Sept
  112. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  113. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  114. Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now?: Yes99%Sat 5 Sept
  115. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  116. Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?: Yes92%Mon 14 Sept
  117. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  118. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  119. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes88%Thu 1 Oct
  120. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No88%Wed 30 Sept
  121. Will Astra solve Elliot Glazer's prototype FrontierMath problem?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  122. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes74%Wed 16 Sept
  123. In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation: Yes55%Sat 5 Sept
  124. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  125. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  126. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  127. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 5 kt on September 29, 2026?: Yes92%Tue 29 Sept
  128. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  129. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  130. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  131. DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  132. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  133. OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  134. # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look on week 1?: 20-22M88%Thu 3 Sept
  135. 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Aryna Sabalenka21%Sun 13 Sept
  136. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic85%Thu 1 Oct
  137. Will there be a confirmed case of Cyclosporiasis in ALL 48 US contiguous states before the end of August 2026?: No95%Tue 15 Sept
  138. Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  139. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Pause–Pause–Pause59%Wed 16 Sept
  140. Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash?: No96%Thu 3 Sept
  141. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  142. Elon Musk # tweets August 28 - September 4, 2026?: 200-21950%Fri 4 Sept
  143. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes84%Tue 29 Sept
  144. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  145. Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?: Yes56%Thu 1 Oct
  146. Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  147. WNBA: 2026 Rookie of the Year: Olivia Miles93%Fri 25 Sept
  148. Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?: No96%Thu 10 Sept
  149. SPY 900 by Sep 18 2026?: No98%Fri 18 Sept
  150. Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  151. Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?: Yes95%Thu 1 Oct
  152. Will YES have more holders than NO?: Yes81%Mon 14 Sept
  153. Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  154. Who will learn to write first? My left hand or my robot hand?: No69%Wed 16 Sept
  155. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA90%Wed 30 Sept
  156. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  157. Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?: No90%Sun 27 Sept
  158. MLB: RBIs Leader: Sal Stewart62%Mon 28 Sept
  159. Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  160. MLB: Triples Leader: Corbin Carroll87%Mon 28 Sept
  161. Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?: Yes96%Tue 8 Sept
  162. WNBA: Rebounds Per Game Leader: Angel Reese92%Thu 24 Sept
  163. Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: Boston Red Sox54%Thu 10 Sept
  164. Manchester City FC vs. Coventry City FC: Manchester City FC89%Sat 5 Sept
  165. Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 August 31-September 6?: No95%Mon 7 Sept
  166. Clarity Act will pass in September: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  167. will Kalorm survive to the end of 'to face the death you're never that far from' (includes both true death and cryo): Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  168. ECB Interest Rates: September 2026: 25 bps increase99%Thu 10 Sept
  169. MLB: Batting Average Leader: Luis Arraez41%Mon 28 Sept
  170. Will Israel exist two years from now?: Yes99%Fri 18 Sept
  171. MLB: ERA Leader: Yoshinobu Yamamoto9%Mon 28 Sept
  172. Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  173. Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?: No67%Sun 13 Sept
  174. MLB: Runs Leader: Drake Baldwin10%Mon 28 Sept
  175. Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5: Under52%Thu 3 Sept
  176. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  177. Will I remain in Montreal past September?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  178. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  179. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes92%Wed 30 Sept
  180. Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros: Houston Astros57%Thu 10 Sept
  181. Will Zoro kill/defeat a Gorosei?: Yes56%Tue 22 Sept
  182. Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  183. Bank of Japan Decision in September?: 25 bps increase97%Fri 18 Sept
  184. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  185. Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?: No76%Sun 6 Sept
  186. Elon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?: 180-19926%Tue 8 Sept
  187. Will Trump outlive DeSantis?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  188. Will a US senator die before October 1st?: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  189. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  190. Will Brett Smiley win the 2026 Democratic primary for Mayor of Providence?: No76%Sat 12 Sept
  191. Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $83 on September 10, 2026?: Yes93%Thu 10 Sept
  192. Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.: Yes64%Thu 1 Oct
  193. Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes92%Fri 11 Sept
  194. Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?: No99%Fri 11 Sept
  195. Ipswich Town FC vs. Liverpool FC: Liverpool FC71%Fri 4 Sept
  196. Apakah aptos akan naik 75% September: No80%Wed 30 Sept
  197. Will I drop out of a PhD within 3 years?: No92%Sun 6 Sept
  198. Will Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?”: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  199. Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 31-September 6?: No89%Mon 7 Sept
  200. Will Carlos Alcaraz win at least 2 Grand Slams in 2026?: No64%Sun 13 Sept
  201. Will Bitcoin be higher 30 days from 12:00 PM EDT 8/5/2026?: Yes99%Thu 3 Sept
  202. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  203. Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: FC Barcelona78%Sun 6 Sept
  204. MLB: Stolen Bases Leader: Nasim Nuñez60%Mon 28 Sept
  205. Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie: Carey Mulligan – “Beef”50%Mon 14 Sept
  206. Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: No99%Wed 16 Sept
  207. The Greens receive at least 5% and enter the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag: Yes65%Sun 20 Sept
  208. Will my brother start reading Harry Potter in the next week?: No75%Tue 8 Sept
  209. San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5: Over58%Thu 3 Sept
  210. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  211. Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?: No67%Thu 1 Oct
  212. Daily Coinflip: Yes51%Fri 4 Sept
  213. Will Nancy Pelosi run for Congress in 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  214. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  215. Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  216. ULTIMATUM GAME: two random traders negotiate this market's resolution: Yes52%Tue 8 Sept
  217. WNBA: Assists Per Game Leader: Caitlin Clark57%Thu 24 Sept
  218. Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Arsenal FC63%Sun 6 Sept
  219. Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?: No95%Fri 4 Sept
  220. Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months?: No97%Wed 23 Sept
  221. New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Chris Pappas97%Tue 8 Sept
  222. Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  223. Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie: Oscar Isaac – “Beef”70%Mon 14 Sept
  224. Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  225. Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $100 before Sep 8?: No85%Tue 8 Sept
  226. Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 4, 2026?: No80%Sat 5 Sept
  227. Will Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026?: Yes88%Tue 15 Sept
  228. Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  229. Will my YouTube Channel have 30 subscribers before the end of September 2026?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  230. Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF74%Fri 4 Sept
  231. Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  232. WNBA: 2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson85%Fri 25 Sept
  233. Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?: No98%Wed 23 Sept
  234. Will I get a positive pregnancy test in the next two weeks?: No72%Thu 10 Sept
  235. Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]: No67%Tue 29 Sept
  236. Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  237. Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Newcastle United FC44%Sat 5 Sept
  238. Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers: Tampa Bay Rays54%Fri 11 Sept
  239. Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  240. Will I graduate with a PhD in 3 years?: No87%Sun 6 Sept
  241. Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  242. Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  243. Will the US announce materially tougher Iran sanctions within 14‑days of Scott Bessent’s “Economic D‑Day” FT op‑ed?: No74%Sat 5 Sept
  244. Will I stay in masters this season?: Yes77%Thu 1 Oct
  245. Will deepseek v5 release in september 2026?: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  246. Will Gukesh be board 1 for India at Olympiad?: No66%Wed 9 Sept
  247. BSW receives at least 5% and enters the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag: No80%Sun 6 Sept
  248. Was the ICE agent who shot Renee Nicole Good injured?: No79%Fri 18 Sept
  249. Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  250. Bitcoin price on September 3?: 78,000-80,00060%Thu 3 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a month, then reported as though they already had.