# US Q3 2026 GDP grew above 3% as inflation eased

*Economics. 67% certain. Wednesday, 11 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Quarterly output rose past 3% while October inflation slipped to 3.7% and 10-year yields remained under 5.32%.**

US real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of at least 3% in the third quarter of 2026. October's consumer price index showed annual inflation of 3.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield stayed below the 5.32% level throughout October.

The GDP figure was released on Friday, 30 October. The measurement covered output from July through September. The result placed the economy above the three-percent threshold.

October's inflation number was published on Wednesday, 11 November. The 3.7% rate reflected a cooling trend in price growth. The reading confirmed that inflation remained below four percent.

The level stayed beneath the feared threshold throughout October.

## Analysis

A quarterly expansion above three percent signals that the US economy continued to grow at a strong pace, supporting expectations of solid demand and investment activity.

With inflation cooling to 3.7%, price pressures eased relative to earlier periods, which could reduce the impetus for the Federal Reserve to maintain or raise short-term rates aggressively.

The 10-year Treasury yield remaining under 5.32% indicates that bond investors did not price in a steep rise in long-term rates, helping to keep borrowing costs for businesses and households comparatively moderate.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [US 10-year Treasury yield hits 5.32%: What is driving the rise? - Global Markets News | The Financial Express](https://www.financialexpress.com/market/global-markets/us-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-5-32-what-is-driving-the-rise/4355870/)
- [Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10)
- [TradingKey Wall Street Weekly Report：S&P 500 Gains 1.2% as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 52-Week High](https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262210476-wall-street-weekly-report-s-p-500-10-year-treasury-yield-52-week-high-tradingkey)
- [US10Y: U.S. 10 Year Treasury - Stock Price, Quote and News - CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)

## What this was built from

- **US GDP growth in Q3 2026?**: ≥3.0%, 67%; settles Friday, 30 October 2026 (polymarket, futuur). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-20260730144539767)
- **October Inflation US - Annual**: 3.7%, 83%; settles Wednesday, 11 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/october-inflation-us-annual)
- **Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?**: No, 85%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-october)
- **Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?**: No, 71%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october)