# U.S. kept cease-fire with Iran as nuclear deal fell through

*World. 74% certain. Wednesday, 4 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The cease-fire held through October 31, while a Hormuz pact and oil-sanction relief also failed to materialise.**

The United States maintained its cease-fire with Iran through October 31, despite political pressure. Negotiations did not produce a final nuclear agreement by the deadline. Likewise, the parties failed to reach a Hormuz reopening pact or revive oil-sanction relief.

It survived the run-up to the U.S. midterm elections, during which political attention intensified. The continuation was noted without any accompanying diplomatic breakthroughs.

The failure encompassed key provisions such as inspections and limits on enrichment. No further steps were announced.

The same day it was confirmed that no agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz had been reached. The absence meant the naval blockade remained in place. No alternative arrangements were made.

Also on Sunday 1 November the United States did not reissue any oil-sanction relief for Iran. Existing restrictions persisted, and frozen assets remained untouched. The policy stance continued unchanged through the election period.

## Analysis

Both sides avoid direct conflict, but the lack of a nuclear framework means inspections and verification mechanisms remain absent, keeping the risk of proliferation debates alive.

Iran retains leverage over this chokepoint, while the United States keeps its naval posture in place, sustaining a status quo that can be exploited by other regional actors.

The decision not to lift oil sanctions keeps Iran's oil revenue constrained, influencing its domestic economic situation and potentially shaping Tehran's future diplomatic calculations. At the same time, U.S. policymakers face domestic pressure to demonstrate firmness ahead of the midterms, creating uncertainty about whether future administrations will pursue a different approach to Iran.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2025–2026 Iran–United States negotiations - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iran%E2%80%93United_States_negotiations)
- [US sets new demands for Iran deal: What are they? | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/7/us-sets-new-demands-for-iran-deal-what-are-they)
- [Islamabad Memorandum - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Memorandum)
- [Iran nuclear deal - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal)

## What this was built from

- **US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 84%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt)
- **US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?**: Yes, 74%; settles Wednesday, 4 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-the-midterms)
- **US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?**: No, 98%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412)
- **US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?**: No, 92%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575)
- **US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?**: No, 91%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-reissues-iran-oil-sales-sanction-relief-byptptpt-20260708142359046)