# US-Iran ceasefire held through October 31

*World. 76% certain. Wednesday, 4 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The ceasefire lasted through October 31 and no nuclear deal, Hormuz agreement or senior talks were reached.**

The United States and Iran kept their ceasefire in place through October 31. Negotiators did not complete a final nuclear agreement before the deadline. The parties also failed to secure a Hormuz accord or a senior diplomatic meeting.

The continuation of the truce was confirmed on Saturday, October 31. The confirmation stated the ceasefire would remain effective until the last day of the month. No indication was recorded that the ceasefire would end earlier.

A final nuclear deal was not achieved by the October 31 deadline. The record showed that no agreement had been reached.

Negotiators also failed to produce a Hormuz agreement by the end of October. The result was logged on Sunday, November 1. The entry confirmed that no Hormuz pact was concluded.

The planned senior diplomatic meeting did not take place before the deadline. The record indicated that no senior talks occurred.

## Analysis

The ceasefire's persistence through the end of October removed the immediate risk of renewed armed clashes between the United States and Iran, offering a short-term window of stability despite the broader diplomatic stalemate. By holding the truce, both sides avoided escalation during a period that included the U.S. midterm elections, limiting the political fallout that a breach could have generated.

The failure to secure a nuclear deal leaves the core issue of Iran's enrichment program unresolved, meaning that the extensive inspection regime and sanctions relief envisioned in earlier proposals remain absent. Without an agreement, uncertainty about Tehran's nuclear trajectory continues, which may influence regional security calculations and affect diplomatic leverage for future negotiations.

Similarly, the lack of a Hormuz agreement and the absence of senior talks mean that mechanisms to manage maritime tensions and direct communication channels remain undeveloped. This gap sustains the risk of incidents in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and limits avenues for de-escalation, reinforcing a diplomatic environment where any misstep could quickly heighten tensions.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2025–2026 Iran–United States negotiations - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iran%E2%80%93United_States_negotiations)
- [US, Iran talks conclude in Doha, focused on Strait of Hormuz](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-enter-technical-talks-secure-peace-deal-restart-shipping-2026-07-01/)
- [Islamabad Memorandum - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Memorandum)
- [Iran nuclear deal - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal)

## What this was built from

- **US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 89%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt)
- **US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?**: Yes, 76%; settles Wednesday, 4 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-the-midterms)
- **US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412)
- **US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575)
- **Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)**: No, 93%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt)