AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 7 October 2026
Edition of Friday, 6 November 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 7 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Friday, 6 November 2026.

Economics

US September CPI showed 3.6% annual inflation

Annual inflation reached 3.6% and Core CPI was 2.5% YoY and monthly CPI rose 0.6%.

37% certain
lead market 37%next 32%1 venuesettles Thu 15 Oct4 markets behind this

On Thursday, 15 October 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released September CPI data. The report showed consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.5% on a year-over-year basis.

The 0.6% monthly gain added to the cumulative rise observed over the past year. This monthly acceleration contributed to the 3.6% headline inflation figure. The Core CPI reading was 2.5% year-over-year.

Core CPI's 2.5% year-over-year growth is calculated after stripping out volatile food and energy components. Both measures are used by policymakers to assess price stability.

The data were released as part of the regular monthly CPI publication schedule. The release completed the statistical update for September 2026 on Thursday.

Analysis

The 3.6% annual inflation figure places the United States in a moderate price-increase environment, suggesting that headline price pressures are not accelerating sharply year over year.

Core CPI's 2.5% YoY rise, which excludes food and energy, provides a view of underlying inflation trends; its modest level indicates that Core price dynamics remain relatively contained.

The 0.6% monthly increase shows that price growth continued in September, reinforcing the annual headline rate and confirming that short-term inflation momentum persisted during the reporting period.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%, 45% settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%, 40% settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.5%, 47% settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%, 37% settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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