AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 30 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 30 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Friday, 30 October 2026.

Economics

U.S. gasoline averaged over $4 per gallon on October 1

Gasoline stayed above $4 per gallon and Crude Oil did not set a new record high.

98% certain
lead market 98%next 2%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct10 markets behind this

On October 1, the U.S. Average gasoline price remained at $4.00 per gallon or higher. The price level persisted even though West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil did not reach a new all-time high by the end of September. In September, WTI Crude Oil also avoided falling to $80 a barrel.

Data showed the price never dropped below that amount during the day. Nationwide retail gasoline costs therefore stayed at or above four dollars per gallon.

Crude Oil prices did not set a new all-time high by September 30. The benchmark therefore closed the month without a fresh high.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil stayed above $80 a barrel throughout September. The low-price target of $80 was not reached during the month. The benchmark therefore never fell to that level before the month ended.

Analysis

Gasoline staying above $4 while Crude Oil failed to hit a record suggests that the retail fuel price is being driven by factors beyond Crude input costs.

Without a price spike at the benchmark, expectations for lower gasoline prices were not met.

WTI not slipping to $80 a barrel shows that the low-price target was missed, reinforcing the view that Oil prices remained relatively firm. This firmness, combined with other cost components, helped sustain the $4-plus gasoline level.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes, 99% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026?: Yes, 98% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
US Average Gas Price Is $4.600 or more on any day in September 2026?: No, 99% settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No, 100% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?: No, 99% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?: No, 100% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?: No, 100% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?: No, 100% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?: No, 100% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?: No, 100% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Back to the front page This article as Markdown
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a month, then reported as though they already had.