# U.S. economy avoided recession as 10-year yield stayed above 4.76%

*Economics. 64% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Berkshire Hathaway beat the S&P 500 in Q3 and a US-China tariff pact was reached.**

The United States recorded positive GDP growth in each of the first three quarters of 2026, steering clear of a recession. Throughout September the 10-year Treasury yield stayed at or above 4.76%, while the S&P 500 closed the month above $730. In the same period Berkshire Hathaway posted returns that outpaced the S&P 500 and Washington and Beijing announced a tariff agreement.

The yield hovered near the high-forties, reflecting persistent inflation concerns. Investors noted the level as a contrast to earlier expectations of a dip.

The S&P 500 index remained above the $730 mark for the entire month of September.

Berkshire Hathaway delivered a performance that surpassed the S&P 500 in the third quarter. The result placed the conglomerate among the quarter's top earners.

The United States and China finalized a tariff agreement by the end of September. The pact removed several remaining duties and set a framework for future trade. The deal was hailed as a step toward stabilizing bilateral economic relations.

## Analysis

The continuation of positive quarterly growth removed the immediate risk of a recession, allowing policymakers to keep a more gradual approach to monetary tightening.

Bond yields remaining above 4.76% signaled that borrowing costs for businesses and consumers stayed elevated, which could dampen investment and housing demand.

Berkshire Hathaway's outperformance highlighted the value of diversified, long-term investment strategies, while the US-China tariff agreement reduced trade uncertainty, potentially supporting export-oriented sectors.

## What this was built from

- **[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?**: No, 91%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-the-united-states-exp)
- **Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-september)
- **Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in September?**: Yes, 66%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-30-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september)
- **Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?**: No, 97%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-september-2026)
- **US x China tariff agreement by September 30?**: Yes, 88%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31)
- **Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in September?**: No, 96%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-september-2026)
- **Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in Q3 2026?**: Yes, 64%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/SacredChicken/will-berkshire-hathaway-outperform-9P6dSEhcNR)
- **Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September?**: No, 80%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-september-2026)
- **Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in September?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-september-2026)