AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Monday, 5 October 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 4 November 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Mon 5 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Wednesday, 4 November 2026.

Politics

Éloïse Coulombe won in Charlesbourg

Patrick Paquet secured Vanier-Les Rivières while other ridings saw newcomers elected.

51% certain
lead market 51%next 48%1 venuesettles Mon 5 Oct18 markets behind this

Monday's provincial election saw Quebecers fill seats in the National Assembly across dozens of ridings. In Charlesbourg, Éloïse Coulombe defeated Gabriel Coulombe. In Vanier-Les Rivières, Patrick Paquet won over Stéphanie Martin. The results reflected a blend of incumbents holding ground and newcomers entering the legislature.

Montarville elected Jean-François Cloutier, while Lévis chose Karine Laflamme. Maskinongé's voters selected Isabelle Blais. In the riding of Groulx, Marie-Claude Sarrazin secured the seat. These outcomes added several fresh faces to the Assembly

Alexandre Leduc emerged victorious in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, beating Maude Brossard-Sabourin. Andrés Fontecilla captured Laurier-Dorion, unseating Randy Legault-Rankin. Benoit Clermont won Saint-Henri, Sainte-Anne against Guillaume Cliche-Rivard. Sylvie Tanguay took Saint-François, defeating multiple opponents.

Bernard Sévigny prevailed in Richmond over Hugo Fontaine and others. Pierre-Luc Brillant secured Rosemont, beating Gisèle Pouhe Njall and two rivals. Charles Page was elected in Drummond-Bois-Francs, surpassing Myriam Cournoyer and Sébastien Schneeberger. Chloé Fauchon won Louis-Hébert against Marcos Archambault.

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier captured Laviolette-Saint-Maurice, defeating Charles Paquin and Laurent Bélisle. Christian Savard took Taschereau, overcoming Étienne Grandmont, Farnell Morisset and Eliot Estévez-Verville. The vote count concluded Monday, finalising the composition of the 44th Quebec Legislature.

Analysis

The election produced a noticeable mix of incumbents retaining their seats and newcomers gaining entry to the National Assembly, suggesting a potential shift in legislative dynamics as fresh perspectives join established voices.

A significant number of the victorious candidates are women, continuing a trend toward greater gender representation that could influence policy discussions on health, education, and social services.

Results across both urban Montreal ridings and more rural divisions show varied political currents, indicating that voter concerns differ regionally and may shape the agenda of the new Assembly

With the composition of the 44th Legislature now set, party leaders will need to assess the balance of power and negotiate alliances, which will affect the premier's capacity to advance the governing agenda and the opposition's ability to challenge it.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Saint-François Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Sylvie Tanguay, 71% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Rosemont Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Pierre-Luc Brillant, 70% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Richmond Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Bernard Sévigny, 70% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Alexandre Leduc, 84% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Isabelle Blais, 87% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Patrick Paquet, 94% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Drummond–Bois-Francs Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Charles Page, 68% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Charlesbourg Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Éloïse Coulombe, 95% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Taschereau Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Christian Savard, 51% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Benoit Clermont, 73% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
La Prairie Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Frédéric Côté, 89% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Frédéric Poulin, 84% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Chloé Fauchon, 64% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Lévis Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Karine Laflamme, 90% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Montarville Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Jean-François Cloutier, 94% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Andrés Fontecilla, 82% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Élodie Murphy-Gauthier, 64% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner: Marie-Claude Sarrazin, 86% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Back to the front page This article as Markdown
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a month, then reported as though they already had.