# Spider-Man 4 out-earned Toy Story 5 and Scream 7 combined

*Culture. 82% certain. Monday, 5 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The Life of a Showgirl: the Encore opened with under 300 k tickets and Digger earned less than $17 m and a sub-60 Rotten Tomatoes score.**

Early October releases showed a split performance, with Spider-Man 4 pulling ahead of expectations while two other titles lagged. The superhero sequel out-earned the combined domestic grosses of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7 through September. At the same time, the Life of a Showgirl: the Encore and Digger struggled at the Box Office and with critics.

Spider-Man 4's domestic receipts surpassed the total earned by both Toy Story 5 and Scream 7, a benchmark that had been watched throughout the summer season.

The musical the Life of a Showgirl: the Encore opened to modest attendance. The shortfall placed the film among the lower-performing releases of the period.

Digger opened to a domestic Box Office below $17 million. Critics gave the film a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer rating under 60. The twin setbacks signaled a weak reception both commercially and critically. The Opening-week earnings were finalized on Sunday 4 October.

Digger's critic score was confirmed on Monday 5 October. The data rounded out the early-October Box-Office snapshot. Together the figures illustrated a stark contrast between the franchise blockbuster and the two struggling titles.

## Analysis

Spider-Man 4's ability to out-earn two established sequels demonstrates the continuing pull of superhero franchises, suggesting studios may prioritize further entries in the series over mid-range projects.

Their Box-Office shortfalls and, in Digger's case, poor critical reception may make distributors more cautious about allocating wide releases to similar titles without strong brand recognition.

This split may pressure studios to balance portfolio risk, potentially leading to a greater emphasis on franchise extensions and a tighter bar for non-franchise projects to secure theatrical exposure.

## What this was built from

- **Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?**: Yes, 99%; settles Friday, 2 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/AdamBraff/through-september-2026-will-spiderm)
- **"Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office**: <17m, 82%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/digger-opening-weekend-box-office)
- **Will "Digger" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?**: No, 94%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/digger-rotten-tomatoes-score-20261005)
- **Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?**: No, 99%; settles Friday, 2 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/the-life-of-a-showgirl-the-encore-first-week-album-sales)
- **Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 150k?**: Yes, 91%; settles Friday, 2 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/the-life-of-a-showgirl-the-encore-first-week-album-sales)