# Iran retained control of Kharg Island and Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted

*World. 85% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Bab el-Mandeb remained open and Perim Island stayed under Houthi control.**

By October 31, 2026 Iranian forces still held Kharg Island. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had not returned to normal levels. The United States had not announced an end to its blockade of Iranian shipping.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait remained open, with no effective closure recorded. Houthi forces did not enter the Yemeni port of Aden. Maritime movements through the Red Sea continued without reported interruption.

Perim Island stayed under Houthi control. No change in its status was recorded by October 31. The Island remained under the same authority as earlier in the year.

The International Atomic Energy Agency conducted no visits to Iran's Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear sites. No IAEA inspection took place at those facilities through October 31. All three sites remained without external verification during the month.

Across the Gulf and Red Sea, the principal shipping routes and contested locations showed continuity. No major operational shifts were reported in the region by the end of October. The region remained in the same operational state as earlier in the month.

## Analysis

The persistence of Iranian control over Kharg Island means that Iran's oil export capacity through its principal offshore terminal has not been altered, limiting any immediate shift in global oil supply dynamics.

The continued disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz indicates that commercial shipping has not resumed pre-conflict volumes, preserving elevated freight costs and supply chain uncertainties for oil-dependent economies. Stakeholders must therefore maintain contingency plans for rerouting or increased insurance premiums, as the waterway remains a chokepoint with limited throughput.

The absence of IAEA inspections at Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz leaves the international community without new verification data, prolonging diplomatic ambiguity over Iran's nuclear activities. This gap restricts the ability of negotiating parties to assess compliance with any existing agreements and may affect future diplomatic leverage.

The unchanged status of Bab el-Mandeb, Perim Island, and the lack of Houthi movement into Aden collectively preserve the current balance of power in the Red Sea corridor. Shipping through the Bab remains viable, while Houthi control of Perim continues to pose a strategic consideration for naval forces operating in the area, keeping regional security calculations largely unchanged.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Brent Crude $103.67 as Kharg Island Odds Stay Near Zero](https://financefeeds.com/brent-crude-oil-price-103-kharg-island-september-30-bull-120-bear-90/)
- [Timeline of the 2026 Iran war - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war)
- [Kharg Island — Grokipedia](https://grokipedia.com/page/Kharg_Island)
- [Kharg Island Operations Under Strain Amid US-Iran Gulf Conflict](https://www.maritimenews.com/kharg-island/kharg-island-operations-strain-us-iran-gulf)

## What this was built from

- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?**: No, 85%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?**: No, 98%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?**: No, 91%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-enter-aden-byptptpt)
- **Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?**: No, 87%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/perim-island-no-longer-under-houthi-control-by-20260916)
- **IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?**: No, 97%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040209014)