# Strait of Hormuz traffic remained disrupted through October

*World. 66% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Israeli airspace stayed open and the Bab el-Mandeb remained unblocked as of October end.**

By the end of October, the main maritime routes in the Middle East stayed largely accessible. The Strait of Hormuz continued to see reduced traffic, while the Bab el-Mandeb Strait experienced no closures. Israeli airspace remained open, and the Saudi East-West Oil Pipeline had not resumed operations.

Iran retained control of Kharg Island throughout October, with no transfer of authority reported. The United States made no public declaration ending an Iranian blockade of regional shipping. Consequently, the status of any blockade remained unchanged.

Houthi forces did not move into Aden during the month, keeping the Yemeni port free of their incursions. Their naval activity elsewhere in the Red Sea persisted but did not affect Aden's operations. The absence of Houthi presence helped maintain the flow of commercial vessels through nearby waters.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait stayed operational, with no reports of an effective shutdown. Shipping lanes through the narrow passage continued to accommodate container and tanker traffic. Authorities reported that the Strait's navigational safety measures remained in place.

The Saudi East-West Oil Pipeline remained offline, preventing the rerouting of crude through the desert corridor. Its continued shutdown left reliance on coastal export routes unchanged. Overall, while some chokepoints stayed functional, disruptions in the Hormuz corridor and the Pipeline persisted.

## Analysis

The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz means that a key artery for global Oil shipments continues to operate below capacity. Reduced flow through Hormuz can elevate freight rates and pressure crude prices, especially when alternative routes are constrained. Shipping companies may seek longer detours or rely more on tankers that can bypass the bottleneck, affecting supply chains worldwide.

The absence of a U.S. announcement ending any blockade suggests that diplomatic negotiations have not produced a definitive resolution. This stalemate keeps the risk of escalatory actions alive, as both sides monitor each other's movements closely.

The lack of Houthi incursions into Aden has provided a temporary reprieve for Yemeni port activity, allowing commercial vessels to operate with fewer security concerns. Nevertheless, Houthi naval operations elsewhere keep the broader Red Sea environment volatile, requiring ships to maintain heightened vigilance. The situation illustrates how localized calm can coexist with regional instability.

An open Bab el-Mandeb Strait maintains a vital link between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, supporting the flow of goods between Europe and Asia. With the Saudi East-West Pipeline still shut, reliance on maritime routes remains high, limiting Saudi Arabia's flexibility in redirecting crude. The combination of an operational Strait and a non-functioning Pipeline shapes the strategic calculus for energy exporters and importers alike.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Brent Crude $103.67 as Kharg Island Odds Stay Near Zero](https://financefeeds.com/brent-crude-oil-price-103-kharg-island-september-30-bull-120-bear-90/)
- [Kharg Island Operations Under Strain Amid US-Iran Gulf Conflict](https://www.maritimenews.com/kharg-island/kharg-island-operations-strain-us-iran-gulf)
- [Kharg Island — Grokipedia](https://grokipedia.com/page/Kharg_Island)
- [US military strikes three Iranian tankers in retaliation for missile attacks | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/05/middleeast/iran-us-tanker-kharg-intl)

## What this was built from

- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?**: No, 82%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?**: No, 98%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)
- **Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?**: No, 66%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-byptptpt)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?**: No, 89%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-enter-aden-byptptpt)
- **Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?**: No, 96%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-airspace-closed-by)