# Iran did not impose Hormuz fees

*World. 85% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**An Oman agreement on Hormuz and a Saudi-Houthi cease-fire also failed to materialise.**

Iran's regional initiatives failed to materialise by early November. The government did not impose any fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A cease-fire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi movement was not announced.

Iran's supreme leadership remained unchanged through the end of October. Talks with Oman on a Hormuz-related agreement did not result in a signed pact. The two parties did not conclude the agreement by the October deadline.

Iran did not sabotage undersea internet cables in the region. No evidence of Iranian-linked damage to submarine communication lines was recorded. The anticipated cable attacks did not occur by the end of October.

An effective cease-fire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels was not in place by the end of October. Both sides had not declared a cessation of hostilities. No formal cease-fire mechanism was operational.

Iran's regional policy showed no new fiscal measures in the Strait of Hormuz. No diplomatic pact with Oman was signed to alter Hormuz arrangements. No cease-fire or cable sabotage actions altered the regional security environment.

## Analysis

The failure to introduce Hormuz fees removes a potential revenue stream for Tehran and eliminates a lever that could have pressured shipping operators. Without the fees, the economic calculus for vessels navigating the strait remains unchanged, preserving the status quo of maritime traffic costs.

The absence of a signed agreement with Oman means that any coordinated management of Hormuz navigation or security protocols between the two countries remains unrealised. This limits Iran's ability to claim collaborative regional influence and leaves bilateral mechanisms for de-escalation undeveloped.

The lack of undersea cable sabotage indicates that Iranian cyber-or maritime operations did not extend to disrupting regional communications. This reduces the immediate risk of wider internet outages and signals that Iran refrained from escalating digital conflict in the Gulf area.

With no Saudi-Houthi cease-fire or effective truce, hostilities along the Red Sea corridor continue without a formal pause, sustaining the humanitarian and commercial challenges that the conflict generates. The continued absence of a cease-fire also hampers diplomatic efforts that could have opened pathways for broader regional negotiations.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2026 Iranian supreme leader election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iranian_supreme_leader_election)
- [Supreme Leader of Iran - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran)
- [Regime change efforts in the 2026 Iran war - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regime_change_efforts_in_the_2026_Iran_war)
- [The Next Phase of the Iran War Will Be a Continuation of Regime Change](https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/10/08/next-iran-war-regime-change/)

## What this was built from

- **Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?**: No, 94%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466)
- **Iran leadership change by October 31?**: No, 98%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by)
- **Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?**: No, 89%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871)
- **Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?**: No, 94%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by)
- **Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?**: No, 85%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-x-saudi-arabia-effective-ceasefire-begins-by-20260916)
- **Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?**: No, 94%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-damage-undersea-internet-cables-byptptpt)