# Israel and Yemen ceasefires hold as Hormuz Strait stays blocked

*World|Other. 89% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Ceasefires with Iran lasted through October, shipping remained disrupted and the US kept its blockade.**

By the end of October, the ceasefires involving Iran remained in effect, while commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stayed disrupted. The United States continued its naval blockade of Iranian waters, and no agreement to end the restrictions had been signed.

Both sides refrained from direct military engagements during that period. The truce was confirmed by reports on the final day of October.

The United States and Yemen also maintained a ceasefire that lasted through 15 October. Hostilities along the coast and in the interior were halted during those weeks. The cessation was recorded in mid-October.

Negotiations for a formal US-Iran Hormuz agreement did not produce a deal by 15 October. The parties remained at odds over shipping rights and security guarantees. The lack of a pact left the status quo unchanged.

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz failed to return to normal levels by 31 October. Vessels continued to face rerouting and delays as the blockade persisted. The United States announced no intention to lift the Iranian blockade before the end of the month. The continued restriction kept regional trade under pressure.

## Analysis

The continuation of ceasefires with Iran shows that diplomatic channels can keep open despite broader tensions. However, the unchanged status of the Hormuz Strait indicates that the underlying strategic dispute remains unresolved. This split creates a situation where hostilities are paused but economic pressure persists.

The Israel-Iran truce, lasting through the end of October, reduces the risk of a wider regional escalation. Stakeholders therefore watch for any incident that could reignite fighting.

The US-Yemen ceasefire, which held through mid-October, allowed for a temporary easing of violence in that theater. While the pause improved humanitarian access, it did not address the political disputes driving the conflict. Consequently, the peace remains fragile and dependent on continued compliance.

The failure to secure a US-Iran Hormuz agreement and the persistence of the US blockade keep a key maritime chokepoint constrained. Global oil shipments continue to experience rerouting costs, and the lack of a diplomatic resolution sustains uncertainty for regional economies.

## What this was built from

- **US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?**: Yes, 90%; settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-yemen-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt)
- **US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?**: No, 93%; settles Friday, 16 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575)
- **US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 89%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt)
- **Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 91%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963)
- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?**: No, 92%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583)