# Yashar's party won election, Eizenkot appointed Prime Minister

*Politics. 36% certain. Wednesday, 28 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Yashar's party won the election and Likud fell to 20-24 seats.**

The 27 October 2026 Legislative election produced a victory for Yashar's party. Yashar was confirmed as the election winner on Wednesday. The coalition formation resulted in former chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot becoming Prime Minister Likud secured only 20 to 24 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Yashar's victory gave his party the mandate to form the next government. The result ended Likud's long tenure in the top post.

Gadi Eizenkot assumed the office of Prime Minister following the election. His appointment replaced the previous Prime Minister the transition was confirmed on Wednesday.

Likud's representation in the Knesset fell to between twenty and twenty-four seats.

## Analysis

Without a dominant Likud bloc, smaller factions may gain leverage in determining cabinet portfolios. The balance of power will therefore hinge on how Yashar assembles support beyond his core party.

Likud's reduction to twenty-to-twenty-four seats relegates it to opposition status, limiting its ability to block legislation outright. The party will need to rely on strategic alliances with other opposition groups to influence policy debates. Its diminished presence also reduces its bargaining power in any post-election agreements.

Gadi Eizenkot's ascent to Prime Minister introduces a leader with a military background, suggesting a possible emphasis on security and defense issues. However, his civilian political experience is limited, creating uncertainty about how he will manage coalition dynamics and domestic reforms. The effectiveness of his government will depend on both his ability to navigate Knesset politics and the willingness of Yashar's party to accommodate his priorities.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2022 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Israeli_legislative_election)
- [2026 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election)
- [Opinion polling for the 2026 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election)
- [Predictmarketcap](https://predictmarketcap.com/events/israeli-legislative-election-winner)

## What this was built from

- **Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?**: Gadi Eizenkot, 48%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election)
- **Israeli Legislative Election Winner**: Yashar, 51%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-legislative-election-winner)
- **Israel Election: Likud # of seats?**: 20-24, 36%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-likud-of-seats)