# Likud won the 2026 Israeli election with 20-24 seats

*Politics. 39% certain. Wednesday, 28 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Gadi Eizenkot became Prime Minister following Likud's victory**

On Wednesday 28 October, Likud was declared the winner of Israel's 2026 Legislative election. The party secured between twenty and twenty-four seats in the 120-member Knesset. Following the result, Gadi Eizenkot was identified as the forthcoming Prime Minister

The determination of the winner was completed on Wednesday. Likud outperformed rivals Yashar, Otzma Yehudit and the Democrats. The outcome confirmed Likud as the leading party in the Knesset.

The final count allocated Likud between twenty and twenty-four seats. The seat range was reported alongside the election results on Wednesday. This tally kept Likud below the twenty-five seat threshold noted in alternative scenarios.

Gadi Eizenkot was identified as the Prime Minister after the election. The decision excluded Benjamin Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman from the premiership. The designation was finalized on the same Wednesday as the election result.

## Analysis

Winning with only twenty to twenty-four seats means Likud will need partners to reach a governing majority, as the Knesset requires at least sixty-one seats. The modest size of its bloc limits its bargaining power and forces it to negotiate concessions with smaller factions. How those negotiations unfold will shape the composition of the next government.

Eizenkot, a former military chief, brings a background that may influence security and diplomatic priorities. Nonetheless, his ability to implement a agenda will depend on the stability of any coalition he assembles.

Parties excluded from the premiership, such as Yashar, Otzma Yehudit, the Democrats, and the previously dominant figures, may become kingmakers.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2022 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Israeli_legislative_election)
- [2026 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election)
- [Opinion polling for the 2026 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election)
- [Predictmarketcap](https://predictmarketcap.com/events/israeli-legislative-election-winner)

## What this was built from

- **Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?**: Gadi Eizenkot, 42%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election)
- **Israeli Legislative Election Winner**: Likud, 50%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-legislative-election-winner)
- **Israel Election: Likud # of seats?**: 20-24, 39%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-likud-of-seats)