# Gadi Eizenkot became Prime Minister after Yashar's surprise win

*Politics. 37% certain. Wednesday, 28 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Likud lost seats and the coalition formed in a single round.**

The Legislative election took place on schedule without a postponement. Benjamin Netanyahu, who had remained Prime Minister through early October, led the Likud campaign but the party lost seats. Yashar emerged as the winning party, securing a plurality. Gadi Eizenkot was appointed Prime Minister as the coalition formed in a single round.

The loss reduced Likud's representation in the Knesset. Netanyahu had not withdrawn from the race in September, keeping his candidacy active. The election concluded with Yashar's victory confirming the outcome.

Negotiations produced a governing coalition after a single round of talks. The arrangement enabled Gadi Eizenkot to assume the premiership without a second election. The process was finalized on the day the results were certified.

Netanyahu remained Prime Minister through early October, including on the 7th. He continued in office until the new government was formed after the election. He had not stepped aside during the campaign period.

The election date stayed unchanged, confirming the timetable set earlier in the year. The coalition formed in a single round, delivering the new government. Gadi Eizenkot assumed the premiership as the new administration took office.

## Analysis

The outcome produced a government led by a figure who was not a traditional party leader, signaling a shift in Israel's political calculus. By securing the premiership, Gadi Eizenkot will need to assemble a coalition that can command a majority despite Likud's reduced presence.

Likud's loss of seats weakens its bargaining power and may force the party into a junior role or opposition, altering the balance of power within the Knesset. Netanyahu's decision to remain in the race and retain the premiership until the election shows his continued influence, but the results limit his ability to shape the next administration.

Forming the coalition in a single round suggests that the winning bloc found sufficient common ground quickly, reducing the period of political uncertainty that often follows fragmented elections. However, the composition of that coalition remains unclear, and its stability will depend on the willingness of diverse partners to cooperate.

Future policy directions will hinge on how Eizenkot balances the expectations of the Yashar party with the constraints imposed by a weakened Likud and any other coalition partners. The durability of the government and its capacity to implement a coherent agenda remain uncertain, given the relatively abrupt transition and the lack of a prolonged negotiation process.

## What this was built from

- **Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?**: Gadi Eizenkot, 46%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election)
- **Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?**: Yes, 98%; settles Wednesday, 7 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/GabrielBenckert/will-benjamin-netanyahu-remain-the)
- **Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?**: Yes, 99%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-netanyahu-still-be-the-prime-m-p34umjodai)
- **Israeli Legislative Election Winner**: Yashar, 57%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-legislative-election-winner)
- **Israel Election: Likud # of seats?**: 20-24, 37%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-likud-of-seats)
- **Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?**: No, 100%; settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/netanyahu-drops-out-of-israel-election-by-july-31)
- **Will the date for the next Israeli legislative election be postponed?**: No, 98%; settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/AaronSimansky/will-the-date-for-the-next-israeli)
- **How many Israeli elections before government formed?**: 1, 63%; settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-israeli-elections-before-government-formed-20260728195012183)
- **Israel election: will Likud lose seats?**: Yes, 94%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-will-likud-lose-seats)