AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Edition of Thursday, 29 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 29 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Thursday, 29 October 2026.

Politics

Gadi Eisenkot became Prime Minister after Yashar won election

Likud lost seats while Netanyahu remained caretaker Prime Minister through early October.

39% certain
lead market 39%next 23%1 venuesettles Tue 27 Oct10 markets behind this

The Israeli Legislative election took place on schedule without postponement. Voters chose the Yashar party as the winner of the Knesset. The Likud party lost seats in the result. Netanyahu continued as caretaker Prime Minister through early October, and Gadi Eisenkot was identified as the incoming Prime Minister

Netanyahu held the premiership through October 7, maintaining the role after the election. He was slated to stay in office until the formation of the new government following the election. The election concluded after a single round of voting, eliminating the need for a runoff.

Likud's reduced seat count confirmed its status as a minority party in the new Knesset. Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief, was set to assume the premiership.

Contrary to speculation, Netanyahu did not withdraw from the election campaign before the end of September. His continued candidacy contributed to Likud's participation in the vote. The election proceeded with the full slate of parties as originally registered.

The Yashar party now controls the Knesset following its victory. Netanyahu's caretaker government continued until the new administration was installed. Gadi Eisenkot became Prime Minister after the election.

Analysis

Yashar's majority gives it the leverage to set the policy agenda, while Likud's reduced presence limits its influence over coalition negotiations. This shift may affect domestic reforms and the balance of power among existing parties.

Netanyahu's continuation as caretaker Prime Minister through early October provided stability during the transition but also limited his ability to advance new initiatives. Remaining in office until the new government formed allowed him to oversee routine administration without shaping the incoming agenda. His role now largely consists of facilitating the handover to Eisenkot's administration.

Gadi Eisenkot's background as a former chief of the Israel Defense Forces suggests a potential emphasis on security and defense issues in the new government. His appointment could bring a more hawkish posture to foreign policy, especially regarding regional security challenges. At the same time, his lack of recent Legislative experience may require coalition partners to influence policy directions.

The emergence of Yashar as the dominant Legislative force disrupts the long-standing dominance of Likud and could reshape voter alignments.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot, 48% settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes, 98% settles Wednesday, 7 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes, 99% settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar, 59% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-24, 39% settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?: No, 99% settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will the date for the next Israeli legislative election be postponed?: No, 98% settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
How many Israeli elections before government formed?: 1, 57% settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?: Yes, 93% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election: Gadi Eisenkot, 61% settles Sunday, 25 October 2026 · futuur · see the market
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