# Iranian regime remained in power

*Politics. 97% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The regime survived and Kharg Island stayed under Iranian control.**

The regime did not fall by the end of October. Kharg Island remained under Iranian control and the younger son of the Supreme Leader was not seen in public.

The regime's continuity was evident as it did not collapse during the period. No public sightings of the Supreme Leader's son were reported, confirming his continued absence from the public sphere. These observations together indicated that the top leadership remained unchanged.

Control of Kharg Island stayed with Iranian authorities through October. The Island's status was confirmed as unchanged at the month's end. Its retention contributed to the overall picture of an unaltered power structure.

Overall, Iran's political hierarchy emerged from the month without any alteration. The regime persisted, the strategic Island remained Iranian, and the Supreme Leader's son stayed out of view. These elements together affirmed the stability of the governing system as of early November.

## Analysis

The fact that the regime did not fall signals that existing power structures were able to withstand any internal or external pressures that might have prompted change, leaving the country's governance framework unchanged.

The continued absence of the Supreme Leader's son from public events suggests that no overt shift in the visible succession line or leadership display occurred, which may point to a deliberate maintenance of the status quo within the ruling family.

Kharg Island's retention under Iranian control preserves a key maritime asset for the country's oil logistics, indicating that the regime has kept its strategic economic infrastructure intact, thereby limiting any immediate impact on regional energy dynamics.

## What this was built from

- **Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?**: No, 100%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-october-31)
- **Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?**: No, 97%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)