# Iran made no leadership or nuclear policy changes by September 2026

*World. 95% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Iran kept its leadership, uranium enrichment, and diplomatic negotiations unchanged through September 2026.**

On September 30, 2026 Iran had not changed its top leadership. The country also kept its uranium enrichment program running, with no halt announced. Tehran and Washington failed to reach a new formal nuclear agreement.

Iran did not launch any military action against Ukraine during the period. The government also refrained from imposing new navigation fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. No Hormuz fees were charged by Iran.

Negotiations with Oman over a joint Hormuz agreement produced no pact by the deadline. No new Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement was signed. The two countries therefore maintained the existing bilateral arrangements.

Across all six policy areas examined Iran maintained its previous stance. The lack of any leadership turnover, enrichment pause, or new diplomatic accord signaled continuity. No policy shifts were recorded in the period.

By the close of September 2026 Iran had enacted no major diplomatic or nuclear changes. The country's approach to Ukraine, Hormuz fees, and nuclear negotiations stayed unchanged. The status quo persisted as the deadline passed.

## Analysis

The absence of a leadership change means that Iran's internal power structure remained stable, limiting any abrupt shifts in foreign or nuclear policy direction.

Continuing uranium enrichment without a halt sustains the technical capacity that underpins Tehran's nuclear program, preserving leverage in any future negotiations.

The failure to secure a formal nuclear deal with the United States or a Hormuz agreement with Oman removes potential avenues for diplomatic de-escalation and economic relief.

Overall, the static policy environment leaves regional actors and the international community with a predictable but unchanged set of challenges, while the lack of new agreements suggests limited diplomatic progress in the coming months.

## What this was built from

- **Iran leadership change by September 30?**: No, 100%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by)
- **Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?**: No, 97%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871)
- **US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?**: No, 95%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575)
- **Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?**: No, 97%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466)
- **Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?**: No, 100%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-ukraine-byptptpt-20260727234956916)
- **Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?**: No, 98%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/ExcuseMeSir/will-iran-and-the-us-reach-a-formal)
- **Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?**: No, 100%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-september-30-20260709004922353)