# No US-Iran Hormuz agreement reached and Iran kept fees unchanged

*World. 92% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**By end-September, the United States and Iran failed to sign a Hormuz pact and Russia and Ukraine did not begin peace talks.**

By September 30, 2026, the United States and Iran had not reached a Hormuz navigation agreement. Iran also did not begin charging any new fees for ships transiting the strait. Russia and Ukraine had not started peace negotiations by that date. The diplomatic impasse left the legal and economic framework for Hormuz unchanged.

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran aimed to replace the ad-hoc fee system with a formal arrangement. Talks collapsed without a signed document. No mechanisms for fee collection or revenue sharing were established.

Iran's Ministry of Petroleum confirmed that no additional charges were applied to vessels in the strait. Existing transit rules continued as before, with ships paying only standard international dues. The decision avoided disrupting regional shipping costs.

Parallel diplomatic efforts between Moscow and Kyiv failed to launch any formal peace process by the end of September. Neither side announced meetings or joint statements on conflict resolution.

## Analysis

The failure to secure a US-Iran Hormuz pact means that the strait continues to operate under the existing, informal fee regime. Shipping companies therefore face no new cost structures, but they also lack the predictability that a formal agreement could provide.

Without a framework for conflict resolution, both regions remain vulnerable to escalations that could draw in external powers. This broader stalemate limits opportunities for coordinated security or economic initiatives that might have emerged from successful negotiations.

Future developments remain uncertain. While Iran could still introduce fees or revisit negotiations with the United States, any shift would depend on political calculations in Tehran and Washington. Likewise, renewed Russia-Ukraine dialogue would require changes in domestic or international pressure. Until such moves occur, the status quo persists, shaping shipping patterns and geopolitical risk assessments.

## What this was built from

- **Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?**: No, 95%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260609012540716)
- **US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?**: No, 92%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575)
- **Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?**: No, 98%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466)