# Labour won Holborn and St Pancras by-election by over 15%

*Politics. 38% certain. Friday, 9 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Labour secured a clear Victory and the Greens earned between 30% and 35% of the vote.**

The Holborn and St Pancras constituency held a by-election on Thursday, 8 October. Labour emerged as the winner, beating the nearest rival by more than fifteen percentage points. The result was announced after the count was completed on Thursday.

The Green Party captured between thirty and thirty-five per cent of the votes. Its share placed the party well ahead of all other challengers except Labour. The gap between Labour and the Greens exceeded the fifteen-point Margin recorded.

Peter Newman finished in third place. He trailed the Greens By a noticeable distance, though exact figures were not released. Newman's position was confirmed on Friday, 9 October, after final verification of the results.

These outcomes concluded the counting process for the Holborn and St Pancras seat. The final tallies closed the electoral episode for the constituency.

## Analysis

Labour's decisive Margin reinforces its standing in a constituency that has traditionally seen close contests. The size of the lead suggests the party retained or expanded its core support base, which could influence its strategic calculations in upcoming city-wide elections.

The Greens' vote share of thirty to thirty-five per cent demonstrates a significant foothold, indicating growing appeal among progressive voters.

The lack of detailed figures leaves uncertainty about how much of the remaining vote was split among smaller candidates, which could affect future coalition or endorsement considerations.

## What this was built from

- **Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?**: 40-45%, 44%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-labour-vote-share)
- **Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory**: Labour 15%+, 38%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory)
- **Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?**: 30-35%, 52%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-green-vote-share)
- **Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: 3rd Place**: Peter Newman, 38%; settles Friday, 9 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-3rd-place)