# Labour won Holborn and St Pancras by-election with 40-45% share

*Politics. 21% certain. Friday, 9 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Labour took 40-45% of the vote, while the Greens did not field a candidate and Peter Newman placed third.**

The Holborn and St Pancras by-election concluded on Thursday. Labour secured between 40 and 45 per cent of the vote. The result gave the party a clear lead over its opponents. The count was completed ahead of the Friday announcement.

The Green Party did not field a candidate in the by-election. Consequently, no Green vote share was reported. The ballot therefore comprised Labour and other parties competing for the electorate.

Peter Newman finished in third place. His position was confirmed on Friday following the final count. The ranking placed him behind Labour and the runner-up.

The outcome gave Labour the seat. With a vote share in the 40-45 per cent range, the party secured the constituency.

## Analysis

Labour's Victory in a London constituency reinforces its position ahead of the next general election, signalling that the party can still attract a sizeable share of urban voters in a standalone contest.

Peter Newman's third-place finish shows that other parties or independents retain a measurable presence despite Labour's lead; the identity and platform of his candidacy will shape how the anti-Labour vote consolidates in future elections, leaving some uncertainty about the primary challenger.

## What this was built from

- **Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?**: 40-45%, 60%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-labour-vote-share)
- **Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory**: Labour 15%+, 29%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory)
- **Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?**: did not happen, 89%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-green-vote-share)
- **Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: 3rd Place**: Peter Newman, 21%; settles Friday, 9 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-3rd-place)