AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Edition of Thursday, 12 November 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 13 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Thursday, 12 November 2026.

Economics

US Core CPI held at 2.4% in September

September data showed US Core CPI at 2.4% and annual inflation at 3.7%, while Argentina's monthly rise stayed near 2%.

49% certain
lead market 49%next 30%1 venuesettles Thu 15 Oct8 markets behind this

On Thursday, September 2026 Core consumer price index in the United States was reported at an annual rate of 2.4%. The same month's overall CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year. In the month-over-month measure, Core CPI increased by more than 0.1%.

Both releases were issued by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Annual headline inflation for September stood at 3.7%, also finalized on Thursday, 15 October. The figure represented the year-over-year change in the overall CPI. The release was part of the same statistical package as the Core CPI.

Argentina's consumer price index for September showed a monthly increase between 1.9% and 2.1%. The range placed the country's monthly inflation modestly above one percent.

The three releases arrived within a two-day span, with Argentina reporting on Tuesday and the United States on Wednesday and Thursday. Each report was issued by the respective national statistical agencies.

Analysis

The United States' modest Core CPI reading of 2.4% and headline inflation of 3.7% suggest that price pressures remain near the Federal Reserve's target range. With month-over-month growth just above 0.1%, policymakers have a data point that could support a stance of gradualism rather than aggressive tightening, though future releases will be needed to confirm any trend.

Argentina's September monthly inflation, recorded between 1.9% and 2.1%, indicates a slowdown compared with the higher rates the country has endured in recent years. A lower inflation environment can ease pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates sharply, but the narrow range also reflects underlying volatility that may affect credibility of monetary policy if future months diverge sharply.

Together, the September figures highlight divergent inflation dynamics among major economies. While the United States shows stable, modest increases, Argentina's inflation, though still elevated, appears to be tempering. These contrasting paths create different policy challenges for each country and may influence global investors' assessment of risk across regions.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

September Inflation US - Annual: 3.7%, 59% settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%, 49% settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%, 62% settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%, 86% settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
US headline inflation rate in September (month-over-month CPI): Above 0.4%, 56% settles Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · futuur · see the market
September Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%, 52% settles Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Argentina monthly inflation: September: Between 1.9% and 2.1%, 63% settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · futuur · see the market
US Core CPI inflation (month-over-month): September: Above 0.1%, 64% settles Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · futuur · see the market
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