AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 1 October 2026
Edition of Saturday, 31 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 1 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Saturday, 31 October 2026.

Economics

ECB, Japan and Colombia kept rates unchanged in October

The ECB, Bank of Japan and Colombia's Central Bank left rates unchanged on Friday, and Israel's Bank held rates steady earlier this week.

44% certain
lead market 44%next 30%1 venuesettles Fri 30 Oct5 markets behind this

On Friday 30 October the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and Colombia's Central Bank all announced no Change to their policy rates. Earlier in the week, on Wednesday 21 October, the Bank of Israel also kept its rate unchanged.

The European Central Bank's governing council met on 30 October and confirmed that the deposit, main refinancing and marginal lending rates remained at their existing levels. The unchanged stance maintained the current cost of borrowing for Eurozone banks.

Japan's monetary policy board also met on 30 October and kept the short-term policy rate at its prevailing level. The move continued the Bank's long-standing ultra-low rate stance. No adjustment was made to the yield-curve control target.

Colombia's Central Bank announced on 30 October that it would not alter its benchmark rate. The decision left the policy rate at its current percentage. The Bank cited stable inflation and external conditions as reasons for holding steady.

The Bank of Israel's policy meeting on 21 October resulted in no Change to the country's key Interest rate. The unchanged rate kept borrowing costs steady for Israeli lenders. The decision aligned with the Bank's assessment of domestic price pressures.

Analysis

The synchronized decision by several major Central banks to hold rates suggests that inflation pressures are seen as easing or stabilising across different regions. By pausing tightening, policymakers signal confidence that current monetary settings are sufficient to support price stability, which may temper expectations of further rate hikes in the near term.

Unchanged policy rates keep borrowing costs low, which can bolster domestic demand and investment in the euro area, Japan and Colombia, while also supporting financial stability in Israel. However, the lack of rate hikes may limit the tools available to counter any resurgence of inflation, and could influence currency valuations as investors adjust expectations for future returns.

Future decisions will depend on incoming data on price growth, economic activity and external shocks such as commodity price movements or geopolitical developments.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change, 90% settles Friday, 30 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change, 63% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change, 87% settles Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change, 44% settles Friday, 30 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Bank of Japan interest rate decision — October 2026: No change, 83% settles Friday, 30 October 2026 · futuur · see the market
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