# Bank of England raised rates by 25 bps as Oil stayed below $120

*Economics. 68% certain. Thursday, 5 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The Bank of England raised rates by 25 bps and the Bank of Japan left policy unchanged as Oil stayed below $120 in October.**

On Thursday 5 November the Bank of England lifted its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point. The move came after the central Bank's assessment of inflation pressures. Earlier in the week, on Friday 30 October, the Bank of Japan announced that it would keep its monetary stance unchanged.

It signaled a continuation of the Bank's effort to curb price growth.

The Bank of Japan's policy remained steady on Friday 30 October. No adjustment to interest rates or yield-curve control was made. The unchanged stance kept the monetary conditions that have been in place for several years.

The assessment of WTI prices concluded on Sunday 1 November that the benchmark never rose to $120 in October. Prices fluctuated but stayed below that level throughout the month. The result ruled out a sharp spike in Crude Oil costs for that period.

## Analysis

The BoE's 25-basis-point rise raises the cost of borrowing for households and businesses. Higher rates are intended to bring inflation closer to target. The move also adds upward pressure on the pound against other currencies.

By keeping policy unchanged, the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-low-rate environment. That stance keeps the yen vulnerable to depreciation when other major central banks tighten. It also sustains the funding conditions that underpin Japan's export-driven economy.

WTI staying below $120 avoids a sharp surge in fuel and energy prices that could have fed inflation further. Nevertheless, the price path remained volatile, suggesting that supply-demand imbalances persist. Energy-price developments will continue to shape the outlook for inflation and monetary policy in the coming months.

## What this was built from

- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in October?**: No, 91%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026)
- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?**: No, 68%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026)
- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?**: No, 97%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026)
- **Bank of England decision in November?**: 25 bps increase, 89%; settles Thursday, 5 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-england-decision-in-november-20260730150602252)
- **Bank of Japan Decision in October?**: No change, 94%; settles Friday, 30 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-october-20260731151537)