AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 2 October 2026
Edition of Sunday, 1 November 2026

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Economics

ECB, Bank of Israel, Colombia kept rates steady

The ECB and Colombia announced their decisions on Friday, while Israel held its rate on Wednesday.

46% certain
lead market 46%next 36%1 venuesettles Fri 30 Oct4 markets behind this

In October 2026 the European Central Bank, the Bank of Israel and Colombia's Central Bank each left their policy rates unchanged. The decisions signaled a shared assessment that current monetary settings remained appropriate. The moves came amid ongoing monitoring of inflation and growth dynamics.

The ECB announced on Friday, 30 October that its key Interest rate would stay at the existing level. It also dismissed any immediate move to cut rates. The Bank cited the latest inflation data as still above its target.

Israel's Central Bank issued its decision on Wednesday, 21 October, keeping its benchmark rate unchanged. The ruling eliminated expectations of a rate Increase or Decrease that had been floated in recent weeks. The unchanged stance reflected a cautious approach to monetary easing.

Colombia's monetary authority released its policy decision on Friday, 30 October, confirming no Change to its reference rate. The Central Bank pointed to recent data on consumer prices and economic activity. Maintaining the rate was intended to support stable growth while inflation remained a concern.

Analysis

By holding rates steady, the three banks indicated that they view current monetary conditions as sufficiently restrictive to contain inflation without further tightening. This stance reduces the immediate cost pressure on borrowers and can help sustain economic activity, but it also leaves little room for policy easing if growth weakens.

A stable ECB rate can support the euro against currencies of economies that are still tightening, while a steady Israeli shekel and Colombian peso may reflect confidence in the respective economies' resilience.

Uncertainty remains regarding the trajectory of inflation and external shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations or geopolitical developments. Should price pressures intensify, the banks may need to revisit their policy stance, but for now the decisions suggest a cautious but steady approach.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change, 88% settles Friday, 30 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change, 67% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change, 86% settles Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change, 46% settles Friday, 30 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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