AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 23 October 2026
Edition of Sunday, 22 November 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 23 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Sunday, 22 November 2026.

Economics

Bank of England and RBA raised rates by 25 basis points

Both central banks lifted rates by 25 basis points while WTI Crude Oil remained under $120 in October.

67% certain
lead market 67%next 32%1 venuesettles Wed 4 Nov5 markets behind this

The Bank of England increased its policy rate by 25 basis points on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of Australia also lifted its rate by 25 basis points the previous day. Both moves came as West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil stayed well below the $120 level projected for October.

The BoE's decision was announced on 5 November. No other change to the rate was made.

The RBA announced its rate increase on 4 November. It raised the cash rate by 25 basis points. The move matched the size of the BoE's adjustment.

WTI Crude Oil did not reach the $120 high-price target for October. The price outcome was confirmed on 1 November.

Analysis

Raising rates in both the United Kingdom and Australia despite low Oil prices indicates that the two central banks are prioritising inflation control over commodity-driven price pressures. The decision suggests that they view other components of the inflation basket as more persistent or that they aim to pre-empt any rebound in price pressures.

Higher policy rates will increase borrowing costs for households and businesses, potentially slowing consumer spending and investment. The moves may also strengthen the pound and the Australian dollar, affecting export competitiveness and trade balances in both economies.

Future policy paths remain uncertain because Oil prices could rise again and global growth prospects may shift. If commodity prices rebound or inflation eases faster than expected, the banks may adjust the pace of tightening in upcoming meetings.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Bank of England decision in November?: 25 bps increase, 96% settles Thursday, 5 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November: 25 bps increase, 67% settles Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?: No, 92% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?: No, 93% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?: No, 97% settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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