# Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 25 basis points

*Economics|Politics. 76% certain. Thursday, 29 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The central Bank lifted rates; the UK Budget left capital gains tax and fuel duty unchanged.**

A day later, the United Kingdom's Budget was delivered on 29 October. The Budget left both capital gains tax and fuel duty unchanged.

The rate increase was announced by the central Bank on Wednesday. It represented a 25-basis-point move from the previous level.

The Budget did not include an increase to capital gains tax. The existing rate therefore remained in place. The government chose to keep the tax framework unchanged.

Similarly, the Budget omitted any rise in fuel duty. The duty rate stayed at its current level. No adjustment was made to the fuel tax.

The two policy actions occurred on successive days, affecting different economies. The New Zealand rate Hike altered borrowing costs domestically, while the UK's fiscal stance left tax burdens steady.

## Analysis

The move is likely to increase borrowing costs for households and businesses, influencing credit growth and potentially strengthening the New Zealand dollar.

In the United Kingdom, the Budget's decision to keep capital gains tax unchanged preserves the current tax burden on investors and property sellers. Maintaining fuel duty at its existing level avoids an immediate rise in transport costs for consumers and businesses.

The juxtaposition of a monetary tightening episode in New Zealand with a fiscally neutral Budget in the UK highlights divergent policy priorities. While New Zealand confronts inflation through higher rates, the UK opts to hold tax rates steady, perhaps to support growth or avoid political backlash.

## What this was built from

- **Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?**: 25 bps increase, 76%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-october-20260729164521631)
- **No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?**: No change, 98%; settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/no-change-or-hike-25-bps-favored-on-october-27)
- **Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?**: No, 94%; settles Thursday, 29 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-in-the-uk-budget-20260914)
- **Will the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty?**: No, 93%; settles Thursday, 29 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-in-the-uk-budget-20260914)