Economics
Central banks held rates steady in October while NZ raised 25 bps
U.S. Core inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month in September 2026.
In October 2026 the Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged. The Bank of Japan also kept its policy rate steady on 30 October. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, however, raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on 28 October. U.S. Core personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3 per cent month-over-month for September 2026.
The Federal Reserve announced its decision on Tuesday, 27 October. It chose to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate. No rate Hike was implemented at that meeting.
The Bank of Japan convened on Friday, 30 October. It decided to keep its policy rate unchanged. The central Bank did not apply any increase to its rates.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand disclosed its policy move on Wednesday, 28 October. It lifted the policy rate by 25 basis points. This was the only rate adjustment among the major central banks that month.
U.S. Core PCE data for September 2026 were released on Thursday, 29 October. The index rose 0.3 per cent month-over-month. The figure measured a 0.3 per cent month-over-month increase.
Analysis
The decision by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan to hold rates steady suggests that both institutions judged current monetary settings as appropriate given the prevailing economic conditions, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand saw enough pressure to justify a modest tightening. The contrast highlights differing assessments of inflation and growth dynamics across regions, with New Zealand responding to domestic factors that warranted a 25-basis-point Hike
The 0.3% month-over-month rise in U.S. Core personal consumption expenditures points to a modest increase in underlying price pressures. Although the figure is positive, its size indicates that Core inflation is not accelerating sharply, which may have contributed to the Federal Reserve's choice to pause rate adjustments during its October meeting.
With major central banks largely on hold and Core inflation showing only a slight uptick, the immediate policy environment appears balanced between supporting growth and containing price pressures. However, the divergence in New Zealand's stance and the ongoing monitoring of U.S. inflation data mean that future meetings could still bring adjustments if economic indicators shift.
Background consulted for the analysis
- Market raises odds of a 25 bps Fed rate hike to 24.9% ahead of October meeting
- US Fed likely to hold rates in October, hike by 25 bps by year-end: CareEdge Global - The Tribune
- Macro Signposts | October Fed Meeting Preview: A Pause Is Still a Recalibration | PIMCO
- Fed Chair Refuses To Signal Another Rate Hike. Markets Are Betting On An October Pause.
What this was built from
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