# Liberal Party won most Senate seats in 2026 election

*Politics. 38% certain. Monday, 5 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Rui Costa won in Bahia and Guilherme Derrite led in São Paulo.**

The Liberal Party emerged as the party with the largest number of senate seats in the 2026 election, as results were finalized on Sunday. Its victories spanned several key states, including Bahia, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Acre and the Federal District. In Bahia, former governor Rui Costa secured the first-place seat, edging out former minister Jaques Wagner. In São Paulo, newcomer Guilherme Derrite claimed the top spot, with André do Prado finishing second.

Jaques Wagner, who placed second in Bahia, remained a strong contender despite the loss. André do Prado secured the runner-up position in São Paulo, finishing ahead of several high-profile candidates. In the Federal District, Bia Kicis captured the second seat, surpassing competitors such as Leila do Vôlei and Erika Kokay. Minas Gerais saw former governor Aécio Neves take the second-place slot, trailing the leading candidate.

In Acre, Marcio Bittar won the senate seat, defeating rivals Mara Rocha, Gladson Camelí and Jorge Viana. His victory contributed to the Liberal Party's broad performance across the country.

With the PL holding the most seats, the party is poised to exert significant influence over legislative agendas. The mix of incumbents and newcomers among the elected senators suggests a varied policy outlook. The results also highlight regional differences, as candidates from the northeast and southeast secured top positions while the center-west saw competitive runner-ups.

The certification of results followed the electoral calendar closely. São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Acre announced their winners on Sunday, 4 October. Meanwhile, the contests in Bahia and the Federal District concluded the next day.

## Analysis

The Liberal Party's dominant seat count gives it a decisive bloc in the 60-member senate, allowing it to shape the passage of bills and influence the approval of executive nominations. This advantage may reduce the need for cross-party negotiations on routine legislation, though constitutional checks and the presence of opposition senators will still matter.

Rui Costa's victory in Bahia and Guilherme Derrite's win in São Paulo place two high-profile figures in the upper house.

The runner-up candidates, Jaques Wagner, André do Prado, Bia Kicis and Aécio Neves, remain politically significant. Their presence ensures that the opposition retains a foothold in the senate, and they may form coalitions with smaller parties to challenge PL initiatives, especially on contentious issues where public opinion is divided.

Uncertainty remains around how the Liberal Party will manage internal factions and whether it can maintain a cohesive agenda.

## What this was built from

- **Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won**: PL, 98%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-won)
- **Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held**: PL, 98%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-held)
- **Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place**: Bia Kicis, 55%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/federal-district-senate-election-2nd-place)
- **São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place**: Guilherme Derrite, 86%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sao-paulo-senate-election-1st-place)
- **São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place**: André do Prado, 67%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sao-paulo-senate-election-2nd-place)
- **Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place**: Aécio Neves, 44%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/minas-gerais-senate-election-2nd-place)
- **Acre Senate Election: 1st Place**: Marcio Bittar, 38%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/acre-senate-election-1st-place)
- **Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place**: Rui Costa, 88%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bahia-senate-election-1st-place)
- **Bahia Senate Election: 2nd Place**: Jaques Wagner, 86%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bahia-senate-election-2nd-place)