# PL took Chamber majority in 2026 elections

*Politics. 63% certain. Monday, 5 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Guilherme Derrite won the São Paulo Senate seat while Rui Costa topped the Bahia race.**

On Monday, 5 October, Brazil's Federal elections produced a clear winner in the lower house. The Liberal Party (PL) secured a majority of seats in the Chamber of Deputies. In the senate, Guilherme Derrite emerged as the top vote-getter in São Paulo. The results also placed Rui Costa, Bia Kicis and Deltan Dallagnol among the leading senators.

In Bahia, voters selected former governor Rui Costa as the first-place senatorial candidate. The contest allowed each voter to choose two candidates, and Costa outpaced rivals such as Jaques Wagner. The Federal District election recorded Bia Kicis in second place behind the leading candidate.

São Paulo's senate race concluded with Guilherme Derrite claiming the first seat. André do Prado secured the second seat, finishing behind Derrite. Both candidates surpassed opponents Marina Silva and Simone Tebet. The two-seat system meant the electorate voted for two names on the ballot.

In Paraná, former prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol won the sole senate seat. He finished ahead of former deputy Filipe Barros and other challengers.

All six outcomes were finalized on Monday, 5 October. The PL majority positions the party to influence legislative agenda in the new term.

## Analysis

The Liberal Party's control of the Chamber of Deputies gives it the ability to set the legislative timetable and advance its policy platform without needing to negotiate with a fragmented opposition. However, the party will still need to secure support from some senate members to achieve a qualified majority for constitutional changes.

The Senate winners represent a mix of political currents: Guilherme Derrite is aligned with the centre-right, Rui Costa brings experience from the executive branch, Bia Kicis is known for her socially conservative stance, and Deltan Dallagnol carries a law-and-order reputation. Their presence could reinforce the president's agenda on security and economic liberalisation, while also providing a platform for more conservative social policies. The composition suggests the upper house will be less hostile to the governing coalition than in previous terms.

André do Prado's second-place finish in São Paulo indicates that moderate opposition forces retain a foothold in the state's representation. While he did not secure the top seat, his election ensures that the senate will include at least one voice from the centrist spectrum. This dynamic may lead to occasional cross-party negotiations on issues where consensus is possible.

Uncertainties remain around how the new senate caucus will organise itself and whether regional interests will override party discipline. The balance of power between the PL-led Chamber and a more ideologically diverse senate could produce legislative gridlock on contentious reforms.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Quem está na frente para senador na Bahia? Veja resultados da última pesquisa | Eleições 2026 | Valor Econômico](https://valor.globo.com/politica/eleicoes-2026/noticia/2026/09/25/quem-esta-na-frente-para-senador-na-bahia-veja-resultados-da-ultima-pesquisa.ghtml)
- [Saiba quem está na frente nas pesquisas para senador na Bahia](https://oglobo.globo.com/politica/eleicoes-2026/noticia/2026/09/30/saiba-quem-esta-na-frente-nas-pesquisas-para-senador-na-bahia.ghtml)
- [Candidatos a senador pela Bahia (BA): veja a lista das eleições 2026 | Eleições 2026 | Valor Econômico](https://valor.globo.com/politica/eleicoes-2026/noticia/2026/09/11/candidatos-a-senador-pela-bahia-ba-veja-a-lista-das-eleicoes-2026.ghtml)
- [Senado pela Bahia (BA); veja os números e nomes dos candidatos](https://oglobo.globo.com/politica/eleicoes-2026/guia/senado-pela-bahia-ba-veja-os-numeros-e-nomes-dos-candidatos.ghtml)

## What this was built from

- **Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place**: Bia Kicis, 83%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/federal-district-senate-election-2nd-place)
- **São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place**: Guilherme Derrite, 67%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sao-paulo-senate-election-1st-place)
- **São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place**: André do Prado, 63%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sao-paulo-senate-election-2nd-place)
- **Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place**: Rui Costa, 91%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bahia-senate-election-1st-place)
- **Paraná Senate Election: 1st Place**: Deltan Dallagnol, 73%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/parana-senate-election-1st-place)
- **Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner**: PL, 66%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-chamber-of-deputies-election-winner)