# Lula led first round as PL dominated Congress

*Politics. 40% certain. Tuesday, 27 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Lula topped the Presidential vote while the Liberal Party won the Chamber of Deputies.**

Lula da Silva emerged as the leading candidate in the first round of Brazil's 2026 Presidential election on Tuesday. In the concurrent congressional elections, the Liberal Party (PL) secured a plurality in the Chamber of Deputies and retained the largest bloc of senate seats.

In the state of Goiás, Flavio Bolsonaro topped the Presidential vote, outperforming rival Ronaldo Caiado. The result highlighted regional variation in support for the candidates.

The gubernatorial contests produced a mix of incumbents and newcomers. Eduardo Paes was Elected governor of Rio de Janeiro, while Sergio Moro won in Paraná. Cleitinho Azevedo of the Republicanos took Minas Gerais and Elmano de Freitas secured Ceará.

Michelle Bolsonaro did not place first or second in the national Presidential tally. The outcome left the Bolsonaro name absent from the final runoff lineup.

Renan Santos, a minor candidate, garnered between two and four percent of the national vote. His share reflected the fragmented nature of the field. The low percentage positioned him well outside contention for the runoff.

## Analysis

Lula's first-round lead without a majority forces a second-round contest, opening space for alliances and strategic bargaining. The president-elect will need to secure additional votes to cross the required threshold, potentially courting centrist or opposition figures. The uncertainty of the runoff outcome adds a tactical layer to post-election negotiations.

The Liberal Party's control of both legislative chambers gives it significant agenda-setting power. With a plurality in the lower house and the largest senate bloc, the PL can shape or block executive proposals. This balance of power may compel the president-elect to negotiate policy compromises to advance his platform.

Their mandates also signal voter preferences that differ from the national Presidential trend.

Michelle Bolsonaro's failure to reach the top two demonstrates limited national appeal for her candidacy, while the modest vote share of Renan Santos shows a dispersed minor-candidate field. These dynamics reduce the number of viable contenders for the runoff, narrowing the contest to the leading figures. Nevertheless, the final composition of the second round remains uncertain, leaving the political direction of Brazil open to further development.

## What this was built from

- **Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner**: Lula, 74%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-winner)
- **Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory**: Lula da Silva <5%, 55%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory)
- **Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?**: 39%+, 93%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-flavio-bolsonaro-vote-share)
- **Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?**: 2-4%, 40%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-renan-santos-vote-share)
- **Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner**: PL, 65%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-chamber-of-deputies-election-winner)
- **Brazil 2026 Election: Will the presidential election be decided in first round?**: No, 92%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Brierbr/brazils-2026-presidential-election)
- **Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held**: PL, 91%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-held)
- **Will Michelle Bolsonaro either be elected president of Brazil or be the runner up in the 2026 presidential election?**: No, 98%; settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MP/will-michelle-bolsonaro-either-be-e)
- **Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner**: Eduardo Paes, 87%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/rio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176)
- **Paraná Governor Election Winner**: Sergio Moro, 85%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343)
- **Elected Governor of Ceará in 2026**: Elmano de Freitas, 62%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/236765/ceara-governor-election-winner-in-2026)
- **Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026**: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos), 83%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/236763/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner-in-2026)
- **Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás**: Flavio Bolsonaro, 93%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-1st-place-in-goias)
- **Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District**: Flavio Bolsonaro, 93%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-1st-place-in-federal-district)