# 2026 Nobel prizes omit women and award Literature to non-English writer

*Science. 56% certain. Tuesday, 13 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The science awards went to men, while the Literature Prize went to a non-English author.**

The Literature Prize was awarded to a writer whose work is primarily in a language other than English. The economic sciences award went to a researcher who was not among the prominently discussed economists.

In Physics, the Prize recognized a male scientist. Chemistry followed the same pattern with a male laureate. Medicine also honored a male researcher, and the Economics Prize similarly went to a male economist.

The Literature laureate writes chiefly in a non-English language. Their novels and essays have been translated into several tongues, but the original works remain in that language.

Several heavyweight economists, including Andreu Mas-Colell, Javier Milei, Demian Reidel, Victor Chernozhukov, Luigi Zingales, Matthew Rabin, Lawrence Katz, David Autor, Partha Dasgupta, Ernst Fehr, Robert Barro, Richard Blundell, Susan Athey, Michael Woodford and Ariel Pakes, were not selected. These scholars, known for contributions ranging from game theory to labor Economics, had been widely mentioned in discussions of potential laureates. The Nobel Committee instead chose a different economist whose name was announced with the other winners.

The Literature Prize was announced on Thursday, 8 October. The Physics, Chemistry, Medicine and Economics prizes were disclosed by Monday, 12 October.

## Analysis

Without a female winner, the Nobel awards provide fewer role models for aspiring women scientists and may reinforce perceptions of male dominance in these fields.

It may encourage greater translation efforts and signal to publishers and writers that excellence is not confined to the Anglophone world, though it also raises questions about the visibility of such works to a wider audience.

The Economics Prize's departure from a roster of well-known scholars suggests that the Nobel Committee valued contributions that were less prominent in public speculation.

The patterns this year may influence how institutions and scholars position their work for future consideration, while also prompting broader discussions about diversity and representation across the Prize categories.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Andreu Mas-Colell - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andreu_Mas-Colell)
- [Nobel Prizes 2026: What to Know - The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/article/nobel-prizes-2026.html)
- [All Nobel Prizes 2026 - NobelPrize.org](https://www.nobelprize.org/all-nobel-prizes-2026/)
- [Meet the 2026 Nobel Prize Winners](https://time.com/article/2026/10/05/nobel-prize-2026-winners/)
- [Who will win the 2026 Nobel Prize in economics? : Planet Money : NPR](https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2026/10/07/g-s1-146828/who-will-win-the-2026-nobel-prize-in-economics)
- [2026 Nobel Prize winners | List, Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann, Georg Nagel, Francis Halzen, Henri Kagan, Kenso Soai, Physiology, Medicine, Physics, & Chemistry | Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/topic/2026-Nobel-Prize-winners)

## What this was built from

- **Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 81%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Partha Dasgupta win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 94%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 90%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 98%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Luigi Zingales win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 96%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Andreu Mas-Colell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 98%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 94%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Matthew Rabin win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 96%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 96%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Richard Blundell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 90%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 88%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?**: No, 56%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/sun/will-the-2026-nobel-prize-in-litera)
- **Will Demian Reidel win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Ernst Fehr win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 94%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 93%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 95%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Tuesday, 13 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-economics-prize-winner-2026)
- **Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?**: No, 90%; settles Monday, 12 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-a-woman-win-the-2026-nobel-pri)